2026年金融服务展望：风险上升与监管变革

Rising risks and regulations Intelligencethat moves Economist Intelligence (EIU) operatesat the intersection of macroeconomicsand geopolitics, delivering data-led insights that empower financialinstitutions, corporations andgovernments to make strategicdecisions for the future. Our coverage Our solutions Operational Risk Country Analysis Understand the political, policy and economic outlook.Our Country Analysis service looks at the globaldynamics that affect your organisation, enabling you Plan effectively with EIU’s expert analysis and data.From detailed country risk assessments to customisablerisk matrices, our service provides you with the toolsneeded to confide tly anticipate and mitigate risks to Financial Risk Speaker Bureau Gain unparalleled insights into the global financiallandscape. Combining EIU’s market-leading dataand country expertise, our rigorous risk-modellingframework enables you to accurately identify risks to Strengthen your strategy and executive knowledge.Book EIU’s experts for virtual or in-person events,training sessions, or decision-making meetings.Our briefingsffer independent insights on political, Contact us for more information The full analysis in this report is available through our Country Analysis service.To arrange a demonstration or discuss the content and features, please contact usor visit www.eiu.com. Hong Kong London New York Economist Intelligence900 Third Avenue, 16th FloorNew YorkNY 10022 Economist IntelligenceThe Adelphi1-11 John Adam StreetLondon WC2N 6HT Economist Intelligence1301 Cityplaza Four12 Taikoo Wan RoadTaikoo Shing Tel:+44 (0)20 7576 8000E-mail:london@eiu.com Tel:+1 212 541 0500E-mail:americas@eiu.com Tel:+ 852 2585 3888E-mail:asia@eiu.com Dubai Gurgaon Economist Intelligence9th FloorInfinit Tower ADLF Cyber City Economist IntelligencePO Box No - 450056Officeo - 1301AAurora Tower Tel:+91 124 6409486E-mail:asia@eiu.com Tel:+971 4 4463 147E-mail:mea@eiu.com Contents What to watch in 2026The year ahead511 What to watch in 2026 Deregulation couldunleash competitionbut raise risks in thefinancial sector. •Interest income for banks will inch upwards while net margins flattenas the policy rate reduction cycle nears its end. •Climate change will raise underwriting risk for insurers and widen theprotection gap, and global insured losses could outpace GDP growth. •Deregulation will raise long-term systemic risk and promote financialindustry consolidation in the US, but mergers and acquisitions will •Stablecoins will fail to find much favour as a means of payment,but the link between traditional finance and decentralised finance Interest incomefor banks willinch upwards asmargins flatten As central banks near the end of themonetary easing cycle that startedin 2024, interest income for bankswill inch up in 2026. EIU forecaststhat banks’ net interest income innominal US dollar terms will risein all nine major economies. Thereare risks to our forecast for China,where interest income could fall ifthe property sector, which is a majordeterminant of banking health, failsto recover in 2026. The net interestmargin—net interest income as apercentage of assets—will flat en yielding assets, constraining marginsin the process. Banks have only just startedcutting deposit rates across majoreconomies, which means thatfunding costs will remain abovefalling asset yields in 2026. In otherwords, the relief from lower depositrates for banks will fail to offsetshrinking asset yields. Borrowers willnot benefit from lower interest ratesimmediately, as the impact will passthrough only slowly. Mortgage rates A rise in climate-related disasterswill raise We expect the rising uncertaintyaround climate-change risks towiden the protection gap (thegap between total losses andinsured losses) in 2026.Climatechange will raise underwriting riskfor insurers and make an increasing will begin to fail in such areas,prompting the development oftailored policies such as parametricinsurance, which provides a pre-agreed payout when the disasterthreshold is reached. In other cases, Swiss Re estimates that globalinsured losses have risen toUS$145bn in 2025, with thewildfi es in Los Angeles in early2025 alone contributing aboutUS$61bn.If the intensity of climatedisasters spikes, global insured in 2026.After all, global growth isflat ening while the determinantsof loss exposure—including thefrequency and severity of naturaldisasters, urbanisation andconsequent asset concentration, Financial deregulationwill raise systemicrisk and prompt The US president, Donald Trump,has sparked a wave of financialderegulation within the US, withthe country’s dominance of theglobal financial ystem meaning thattransmission effects are inevitable.In the US itself, the administrationhas already lowered the budgetof several important financialregulators. In 2026 this will seriouslyhamper their ability to oversee the “Basel III endgame”, has alreadybeen diluted and indefini ely delay