可编程货币：稳定币是跨境商业的未来

Please refer to important disclosures on pages 32 and 33. Analyst certification is on page 32.William Blair or an affiliate does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As aresult, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of thisreport. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice. The opinions and recommendations here- A Stablecoin Primer and Outlook for Use-Cases, Winners, and Losers...........................3What Are Stablecoins?.......................................................................................................4Stablecoins Hold the Key to Crypto Value Unlock.............................................................7Regulatory Progress Is Bullish........................................................................................10Stablecoin Initiatives Highlight Cross-Border Commerce Are the MostCompelling Commercial Use-Case............................................................................14Stablecoins Address Massive Global Cross-Border TAM................................................20Competitive Landscape and Our Views on Standardization..........................................21Risks and Opportunities Abound for a Variety of StablecoinEcosystem Stakeholders...........................................................................................23Winners.........................................................................................................................24Neutral Impact..............................................................................................................27Losers............................................................................................................................28Timeline for Commercial Adoption................................................................................29 replacing traditional cross-border B2B money movement rails and, to a lesser extent, consumercommerce infrastructure. Unlike fiat-based cross-border commerce, which is comparatively slow,expensive, and fragmented, stablecoin commerce essentially eliminates FX risk; can be conduct-ed 24/7, 365 days a year; requires fewer intermediaries; and offers near-instant and immutabletransaction finality and exposure to stable currencies, like the U.S. dollar. Stablecoins can also be We argue that the rise of stablecoin cross-border commerce, particularly for B2B transactions,is inevitable, but the timing remains unclear. Although the recently passed GENIUS Act improvesregulatory clarity, we do not think that is enough to drive adoption. Rather, our view is that vol-ume growth will be catalyzed by a series of key events, including: the availability of new digitalnetworks; corporate demand; infrastructure development at traditional networks like Mastercard,Visa, and Corpay; ecosystem partnerships; stablecoin standardization; and ultimately traditional The stablecoin market will coalesce around a handful of payment tokens, in our view, creatingstandardization that facilitates liquidity and commercial adoption. Although individual entitiesmay issue proprietary coins, we believe liquidity and network integration will force adoption of afew leading stablecoins. This outlook informs our bullish view on Circle and Coinbase as key ben-eficiaries of rising USDC adoption. Among other stablecoin winners, we include Visa, Mastercard, Programmable Money • Help commercial partners mint and burn proprietary stablecoins• Examples: Circle Mint, Stripe Bridge, Visa Tokenized Asset Platform Backing Stablecoins There are three types of stablecoins: 1.Fiat-backed stablecoinsare collateralized by dollar-denominated assets, such as U.S. Trea-surys, held at a traditional financial institution or a token issuer. Aggregate circulated tokensupply is held proportional to the underlying value of reserve assets. Following thefailure ofTerraUSD, fiat-based stablecoins are widely considered the ecosystem standard. Importantly,leading stablecoin issuers, like Circle, offer a monthly proof of reserve, assuring that holders 2.Asset-backed stablecoinsare collateralized by crypto assets, such as Ethereum or Bitcoin,where the underlying digital asset is held in an escrow-like smart contract in exchange for a stablecoin. In some cases, like USDT (issued by Tether), backing can include Treasurys, crypto, and even land and gold. While Tether isreportedly set to launch a U.S. stablecoin, it does notcurrently report a proof of reserve. As a result, we do not think it is appropriate for U.S. cross-border commerce. 3.Algorithmic stablecoinsare unsecured and stabilized by internal “burning” and “minting” protocols that regulate the number of tokens in circulation. As mentioned earlier, we think the TerraUSD stablecoin failure in 2022—and negative knock-on effects for its sister coinLuna—make algorithmic stablecoins untenable. While some could be is