韩国存储器出口追踪（2月）：1月后复苏，尤其是SK海力士

Korea Memory Export Tracker (Feb): A recovery from Jan, esp. forSK hynix We track the Korea export data as it is a good early indicator for Samsung’s & SK hynix’sHBM revenue in the same quarter, and update this tracker with the Feb data. Details of ourmethodology can be found in our prior note. The dataset can be downloaded at this link. Overall HBM export in Feb recovered strongly from Jan.Feb’s strength made up forJan’s weakness and Jan+Feb exports were therefore up 5% QoQ (vs Oct+Nov). Between Samsung & SK hynix, Samsung Feb HBM was solid and tracked in line withour estimates.Export from S. Chungcheong Province (where Samsung packages HBM)recovered MoM seasonally. Jan+Feb was up 18% QoQ (vs. Oct+Nov). Regression considersthe backend-loaded seasonality & suggests 1Q26 HBM revenue to rise by 21% QoQ, a tadabove our forecast. Export for SK hynix came even stronger than expected.Export from N. Chungcheongand Icheon was up 75% QoQ & brought Jan+Feb to flat QoQ (vs Oct+Nov). And based onthat, regression predicts 1Q26 HBM revenue to see slight QoQ growth, better than thedecline that our model projects. Data confirmed HBM price has been insulated from the volatility of conventionalmemory price.Conventional memory price surged in the past few months, but HBM pricehardly moved, or even fell slightly when we consider the trend for SK hynix. No sign of ASP increase from HBM4 yet.As HBM has much higher dollar value perweight, we track “value per weigh” as it may be directionally suggestive of HBM pricechange. Feb “value per weight” rose MoM for Samsung & stayed steady for SK hynix, andneither showed sign of HBM4 yet. However, the trend over the past few months has beengenerally flattish or positive for Samsung but declining for SK hynix. SK hynix recovered more MoM, but overall trend still favors Samsung & supports ourview that Samsung is improving in HBM & should gradually gain share. HBM export to Malaysia resumed & grew bigger.Size grew to US$0.9B, 2x of Nov &Dec level & contributed to the overall recovery in Feb. Exports were still predominantly fromSamsung, but some from SK hynix too. Besides that, no sign of HBM export to destinationsother than Taiwan & Malaysia, and also no sign that Samsung or SK hynix was producingHBM at a location that we don’t track. Our methodology thus remains robust. We see stronger-than-expected memory price in the near-term.We expectstrong HBM demand growth in the next 2 years & conventional memory price to stayrobust for 2026. We now expect another sizable price increase in 2Q26, as consumerdemand has showed no sign of destruction yet. We believe price may peak in 1H27,and gradually normalize afterwards as more clean rooms come online. We remainstructurally constructive on Samsung, SK hynix and Micron but negative on KIOXIA on Chinacompetition and also valuation. Please find our latest updates at Global Memory: Price BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Samsung Electronics:We rate Samsung Electronics Outperform with price target of KRW 225,000. SK hynix :We rate SK hynix Outperform with price target of KRW 1,150,000. DETAILS Korea Customs Service has released export data for February. As our previous note found, the export data for certain memoryproducts bears close correlation with HBM revenues of Samsung and SK hynix. We hence track the monthly data to provideinvestors a preview on HBM revenues from the two companies in the same quarter. Details of our methodology can be found in theprevious note. You may download the export data at this link. Overall, Feb data was solid for Samsung and tracking in line with our latest projection for its 1Q26 HBM revenue.For SK hynix, the data was surprisingly strong. It made up for the weakness in Jan, & pointed to steady or mildHBM revenue growth in 1Q26. •Feb Korea total multichip memory export to Taiwan and Malaysia was US$3.7B, rebounding very strongly by 61% from Jan’slow. YoY growth rate also rose to 195%, considerably stronger than previous months (Exhibit 1). On a QoQ basis, Feb wasup by 43% (vs. Oct), and largely made up for Jan’s weakness and brought combined Jan+Feb to 5% higher QoQ (vs Oct+Nov). As we analyzed before, multichip memory export data to Taiwan and Malaysia tracked closely with HBM revenuesfrom Samsung and SK hynix and therefore the Feb data indicated the 1Q26 HBM revenue may see some moderate QoQgrowth, better than what the Jan data indicated. •If we focus on exports from S. Chungcheong Province, where Samsung’s back-end fabs are and likely where its HBM ispackaged, Feb exports rebounded by 45% MoM. QoQ it was flattish vs. Nov but Jan+Feb combined was 18% higher thanOct+Nov (Exhibit 2). In comparison, our latest forecast has Samsung HBM revenue rise by 17% QoQ in 1Q26 to US$3.9B,and hence the data suggests Samsung HBM export is tracking in line with our forecast (Exhibit 3). Actually according tothe regression using historical data, the Jan+Feb data suggested c. US$4B in HBM revenue for Samsung