隔夜美股总结本周股市收盘走低在令人意外的疲软且充满噪音的非农就业数据发

本周股市收盘走低，在令人意外的疲软（且充满噪音）的非农就业数据发布后，周期性板块估值明显下调。此外，受一系列负面消息影响，恐慌指数（VIX）和原油价格（突破90美元/桶）持续走高。相关负面消息包括：卡塔尔能源部长提到，即使冲突立即结束，也需要“数周至数月”才能恢复正常，并警告称如果能源出口国被迫停产，油价可能飙升至每桶150美元（《 隔夜美股总结 本周股市收盘走低，在令人意外的疲软（且充满噪音）的非农就业数据发布后，周期性板块估值明显下调。此外，受一系列负面消息影响，恐慌指数（VIX）和原油价格（突破90美元/桶）持续走高。相关负面消息包括：卡塔尔能源部长提到，即使冲突立即结束，也需要“数周至数月”才能恢复正常，并警告称如果能源出口国被迫停产，油价可能飙升至每桶150美元（《查找图书》）；特朗普表示“与伊朗达成协议的前提是无条件投降”；美联储戴利表示“我们的两个目标现在都面临风险”；科威特削减石油产量，因其储油空间即将耗尽；Blue Owl对倒闭的英国贷款机构有风险敞口；贝莱德限制其私人信贷基金的赎回。 Desk flows on the week were reflective of top – down macro type trading with ETF % of tape consistently hovering > 40% (peakwe’ve seen). Prime observations point to US ETF shorts increasing +8.3%, the 2nd largest increase in the past 5 years, which pointsto increased hedging activity. Liquidity also very impaired exacerbating price action (chart below). Single stock activity muted withAsset Managers mostly frozen and flow finishing flat as macro supply was offset by demand in HCare (MDLN FO), HFs finished+2b net buyers driven by scattered cover demand in Software (PB notes TMT stocks saw largest broad – based de – grossingactivity since Jul ’24 led by short covers in Software). Street also digested > 20bn of global paper issued this week. S&P nowthrough CTA mediumtermtrend level of 6762 as of today’s close which will magnify supply estimates into next week. 本周的交易流量反映了自上而下的宏观型交易特征，ETF占总成交量的比例持续保持在40%以上（这是我们见过的峰值）。主要观察结果显示，美国ETF空头头寸增加了8.3%，是过去5年来的第二大增幅，这表明对冲活动有所增加。流动性也严重受损，加剧了价格波动（见下图）。个股活动低迷，资产管理公司基本处于观望状态，资金流向最终持平，宏观层面的供应被医疗保健板块的需求（MDLN卖出期权）所抵消。对冲基金最终净买入20亿美元，主要是受软件板块零星的回补需求推动（主经纪商业务笔记显示，TMT股票出现了自2024年7月以来最大规模的广泛去杠杆化活动，其中以软件板块的空头回补为主）。本周市场还消化了超过200亿美元的全球发行证券。截至今日收盘，标普500指数已跌破CTA中期趋势线水平6762，这将放大下周的供应预估。 US Fundamental L/S Gross leverage increased +2.1 pts – mainly driven by mark – to – market and performance loss making thedenominator smaller – to 224.5% (97th percentile one – year), while US Fundamental L/S Net leverage rose +0.5 pts to 54.8%(82nd percentile one – year). 美国基本面多/空策略的总杠杆率上升了2.1个百分点——主要是由市价计值和业绩亏损导致分母变小所致——达到224.5%（处于一年内97%的分位水平），而美国基本面多/空策略的净杠杆率上升了0.5个百分点，达到54.8%（处于一年内82%的分位水平）。 NEXT WEEK: S&P implied move through next Friday (3/13) is 2.83%. Fed entering blackout period ahead of 3/18 FOMC decision. Handful ofinflation data points will be closely watched (CPI Wed, PCE Fri). On the earnings front, keep an eye on ORCL (Tues) and ADBE(Thurs). 下周展望：标普500指数截至下周五（3/13）的隐含波动率为2.83%。美联储将在3月18日联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）决议前进入静默期。一些通胀数据点将受到密切关注（周三CPI，周五PCE）。在财报方面，关注甲骨文（ORCL，周二）和Adobe（ADBE，周四）。 A Weekly Mark – to – Market on Each Sector – TY Trading & Sector Specialists TECH: Amidst the most dynamic week we have seen in a long time, the NDX somewhat hung in (only down ~75 bps – that said, riskappetite remains challenged as Software > Semis by 700+ bps this past week (…still a – 25pt YTD spread…) and the GST TMTMo’ Pair sold off ~12% on the Mag 7 finishing worst on the week (led by MSFT, NVDA, AMZN), finally starting to act a bit moredefensively. Most Crowded Longs: TSM, NVDA, MU, ASML, LITE/COHR // Shorts: WDAY, CRM, MNDY, QCOM, ADBE– TY Pete Callahan 科技板块：在经历了很长一段时间以来最动荡的一周后，纳斯达克100指数（NDX）表现尚可（仅下跌约75个基点）。即便如此，风险偏好仍面临挑战，过去一周软件板块跑赢半导体板块超过700个基点（年初至今利差仍有约25个百分点），高盛TMT动量对冲组合本周下跌约12%（为4年多来表现最差的一周）。唯一的亮点是“七巨头”（Mag 7）——周一表现不佳（由微软、英伟达、亚马逊领跌），终于开始表现出一定的防御性。最拥挤的多 头：台积电（TSM）、英伟达（NVDA）、美光科技（MU）、阿斯麦（ASML）、LITE/COHR；空头：Workday（WDAY）、赛富时（CRM）、MongoDB（MNDY）、高通（QCOM）、Adobe（ADBE）——感谢PeteCallahan CONSUMER: Tough week for consumer/retail (-5% wtd) on back of the geopolitical concerns, oil rally and weaker employment data to finishweek. Housing exposed stocks (on rates), mall retail (not helped by earnings like GAP, ANF) and travel/retail were the weakestperformers albeit not on huge volumes as exposers didn’t seemthat high coming. Overall it still feels like a buyers strike in the space– less about investors being negative on the consumer (they are not as still have stimulus, a tariff unwind call option & easier compsahead) and more about the lack of ideas / longs you can find at reasonable valuations and macro uncertainties too wide to cap. MostCrowded Longs: ONON, VIK, ROST, AS, TJX, MNST, CLX, UAA, CL, TSCO, PHM – LY Eric Mihelc // Shorts: BBY,BF/B, KHC, WEN, BX – TY Jon Chan 消费板块：受地缘政治担忧、油价上涨以及周末疲软的就业数据影响，消费/零售板块（加权后）表现糟糕，本周下跌5%。房地产相关股票（受利率影响）、商场零售（受GAP、ANF等财报影响）以及旅游/零售板块表现最差，尽管成交量不大，因为卖方似乎并不高。总体而言，这个领域仍然感觉像是买家的罢工——与其说投资者对消费者持负面看法（他们仍然有刺激措施、关税解除的选择权以及未来更容易的比较），不如说是因为在合理的估值下找不到想法/多头，而且宏观不确定性太大，难以控制。最拥挤的多头：Onon、VIK、ROST、AS、TJX、MNST、CLX、UAA、CL、TSCO、PHM – LY Eric Mihelc；空头：百思买（BBY）、BF/B、KHC、WEN、BX – TYJon Chan HEALTHCARE: The sector proved to be a highly unreliable defensive this week (XLV – 5.2% vs. SPY – 1.8% on the week) – potentially suggestingthe more intrusive exogenous force on price action for the sector this week was the rebound in the AI At – Risk/Software complex(a rather beneficiary of the AI At – war). Weakness on the way down (see visual below) on rotational dynamics – and subsequentlytraded heavily this week (our Pharma basket GSHLCPL + Large Biotech