人口变化与技术创新十字路口的投资机会新前沿

Ageing economies facea stark choice: do nothing anddecline or transform andcontinue to grow. Fortunately,automation andAIcan Executive summary Demographic change is transforming our societies andeconomies. Its steady creep is gathering pace and force, de-manding that countries adapt and innovate if they are to copewith the deep, structural shifts that their populations are juststarting to experience. While the drivers of population changeare multiple and uneven, one constant holds true: by 2050 the Ageing economies face a stark choice: do nothing and de-cline or transform and continue to grow. Fortunately, automa-tion and artificial intelligence (AI)can go a long way to coun-terbalance the shrinkage of the labour force, and the timing of The interplay between demographic pressures and tech-nological advancements is expected to reshape the global eco-nomic landscape, presenting both challenges and opportuni- The sequencing of automation typically adheres to a pat-tern in ageing economies. First comes the deployment ofsub-stitution robots, which directly take the place of workers whoare becoming scarce or expensive to employ. Then comes the Substitution robots simply sustain production levels withfewer workers, whereas productivity robots have the potentialto increase output and generate competitive advantages. Yetworker-replacement robots can be implemented swiftly, while The economies that successfully navigate both automationphases are likely to counteract labour shortages with produc-tivity gains, whereas those that remain only in the substitutionphase may run the risk of eventual declining competitiveness. For all countries undergoing demographic transitions, thekey to the successful adoption of productivity-enhancing tech-nologies fundamentally lies in developing the infrastructure In the context of industrial automation, advancements inrobotics andAIare enabling machines to perform an expandingrange of tasks. We estimate thatAIwill achieve peak productivity The timing ofAIadoption in each country, in relation to itsdemographic pressures, can significantly alter its productivityoutlook. Countries may face temporary declines in productivity The timing ofAIadoption in eachcountry, in relation to its For ageing economies, this poses a dual timing challenge: thedemographic headwinds potentially occurring alongsideAI’sdisruptive phase. Strategic planning and well-timed invest-ment decisions could help the affected economies and sectorsnavigate the trough of theirAI diffusion process, enabling them The economic impact of automation relies not only on costsavings but also on demand patterns. If ageing populations’ con-sumption patterns favour sectors that can be automated anddeliver efficiency gains, this would have a broader positive effect The economic impact ofautomation relies not only on cost savings Our analysis examines the shifts in consumption patternsthat occur as populations age across various geographies andcombines its findings with the potential productivity gainsbound to occur through automation andAI. Our novel approachallows us to identify the investment opportunities that are likely Contents Executive summaryIntroduction9 1.Demographics: facts, figuresandperspectives 2.The intersection of technology and demographics20 3.How technologies are diffused:lessons from past technological waves 4.Automation diffusion:economy-level and sector insights 5.On the economic impact ofAIand automation 6.Investment implications:the future winners 7. Concluding remarks References50 In the coming 25 years,leading advancedeconomies are all projected to Introduction Demographic change is reshaping the world we live in.The population structures of countries across the globe arechanging, and the pace of change will only increase in thecoming decades, forcing societies and economies to adapt. In the coming 25 years, leading advanced economies areall projected to experience a decline in the working-ageshare of their populations due to falling fertility rates(births per woman) and ageing societies. This could very As labour becomes scarcerand more expensive in ageing societies,businesses have greater incentives China’s situation is particularly arresting. It is project-ed to be the country most affected by ageing, with thepopulation expected to halve by the end of this centurydue to its sustained low fertility rate. What’s more, China’selderly dependency ratio is projected to surpass 100% by Technology can counterbalance the economicconsequences of these demographic changes. Indeed,as labour becomes scarcer and more expensive in ageingsocieties, businesses have greater incentives to invest intechnologies that can substitute human labour and/or The experiences of Germany and Japan show how thisdynamic is already playing out in different ways in differentcountries. Germany’s rapidly ageing population requires These respective experiences follow what has becomea predictable pattern, se