会降至多低？所有人的目光聚焦在本周的FOMC会议以及围绕货币政策路径的指引

How low will they go? All eyes on this week's FOMC meeting and guidance aroundthe path for monetary policy. Jennifer Cardilli*+1 212 526 8351jennifer.cardilli@barclays.comBCI, US The Macro Wrapis your weekly, need-to-know guide to our key macro views, implications formarkets and trending research. Jill Nentwig*+ 1 212 526 5129jillian.nentwig@barclays.comBCI, US The stage seems set for the Fed to resume interest rate cuts, we expect three 25bp cuts ateach remaining meeting this year (and we expect the dot plot to show the same). Our EquityStrategy team dustedoffthe history books to find out what happensafterFed cuts resume.Historically, when a cutting cycle begins without a downturn, equities grind higher andoutperform bonds over 6m. If followed by a recession, equities tend to dip post-cut butrebound over 12m, with bonds outperforming early. Sharon Mutiti*+44 (0)20 7773 1208sharon.mutiti@barclays.comBarclays, UK USAugust CPI was broadly in line with our expectations. Our inflation view is unchanged – weexpecttariff-relatedpressures to become more visible in Q4. TheFedfaces few obstacles inmoving rates toward neutral. Underlying inflation remains contained, and labour marketrisks are skewed to the downside; we staylong duration. TheECBheld rates. President Lagarde says inflation is "where we want it". Growth risks arebalanced. The front end will likely be stuck in a waiting game. UKSpend Trends show total spend rose 2.1% y/y in August. The BoE is likely to hold at 4%.QT may slow to £75-80bn. Risks are tilted toward ashiftin active sales away from the longend – and possibly an end to active selling. Gilt 10y and 30y ASW could rally in that scenario.The Budget looms large. GBP short positioning is vulnerable to a credible fiscal plan. Political uncertainty inJapanleads us to push our BoJ hike call from October to January.Focus nowshiftsto successionafterthe PM’s resignation. Markets are pricing only mild fiscalexpansion, but term premia risks remain. We recommend 1y2s5s bear-steepeners. Chineseexports missed and CPI slipped into deflation on food prices. There are no signs ofcollapse in high-frequency data. Meanwhile, the role of Chinese SPR build-ups in supportingspot fundamentals appears overstated. We maintain our$66/bbl Brentforecast for 2026. Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. * This individual is a member of the Product Management Group and is not a Research Analyst All research referenced herein has been previously published. You can view the full reports,including analyst certifications and other important disclosures, by clicking the hyperlinks inthis publication or by going to our Research portal on Barclays Live. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 10.Completed: 15-Sep-25, 08:53 GMTReleased: 15-Sep-25, 09:00 GMTRestricted - External Weekly Research Highlights Employment risk harder to ignore Job gains have now decelerated notably, highlighting the "curious kind of balance" of laboursupply and demand discussed by Powell at Jackson Hole. Although SEP baselines are unlikelytoshiftmuch, intensified downside risks to employment make sequential 25bp cuts throughDecember likely. GBP's Budget woes: A not-so-high bar to clear The bearish fiscal narrative has resurfaced but the bar to a more positive GBP equilibrium maybe lower than this narrative implies. More solid fundamentals than markets appreciate andshort GBP positioning create scope for a rebound. The necessary condition, and catalyst, is acredible Budget. Barclays Key Macro Views US Outlook •We now expect three 25bp cuts in 2025 (in September, October and December), up from twopreviously, followed by one more in 2026 and another one in 2027. No jumbo (50bp) cuts areanticipated for September. •Our inflation view is unchanged – we expecttariff-relatedpressures to become more visible inQ4. The Fed faces few obstacles in moving rates toward neutral. Underlying inflation remainscontained, and labor market risks are skewed to the downside. •Broader economic indicators (ISM, GDP and spending) show some resilience, but labourmarket weakness is now the dominant macro risk, in our view. Euro Area Outlook •The ECB decided to keep rates unchanged at the September meeting. Our analysts believethat current monetary conditions will not be in place for long because of the projectedinflation undershoot, modest growth outlook, a stronger euro and a broadly neutral fiscalstance at the euro area level. We maintain our call for a 25bp cut at the December meeting. •Final August HICP releasesleftinflation unchanged