制衡：美国联邦贸易法院的裁决提醒人们，美国的制衡机制仍在发挥作用。财政法案的S899条款让人联想到对美国资本账户征税的想法，但最终可能没有人们担心的那么激进。

Restricted - External Themistoklis Fiotakis+44 (0) 20 7773 2002themos.fiotakis@barclays.comBarclays, UKLefterisFarmakis+44 (0) 20 3555 6549lefteris.farmakis@barclays.comBarclays, UKAndrea Kiguel+1 212 526 8954andrea.kiguel@barclays.comBCI, USMitul Kotecha+ 65 6308 5439mitul.kotecha@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeShinichiro Kadota+81 3 4530 1374shinichiro.kadota2@barclays.comBSJL, JapanMarek Raczko+44 (0) 20 3134 0089marek.raczko@barclays.comBarclays, UK FIGURE 1. FX volatility remains elevated...FIGURE 2. ...with very positive skew for the CHF and JPY-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.0AUDNOK NZDSEKGBPCADDKKEURCHFJPYCurrentChangeNote: We calculate volatility indices by weighting each currency by its BIS FXChart depicts 3m, 25 Delta risk reversal skews at present and changes since"Liberation Day".Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchAgainst this backdrop, FX vol has unsurprisingly remained fairly elevated (Figure 1), with G10 FXimplied volsshiftingtowards extremes. Risk reversal skews show that sentiment has turnedrelatively more bullish for the likes of the CHF and JPY, with the biggestshiftsin sentiment since"Liberation Day" occurring in the CAD and CHF on the positive side, and the NOK on thenegative side (Figure 2). For all the noise and uncertainty surrounding the final US policysettings, there is arguably less scope for FX options sentiment to turn more USD negative,consistent with our sentiment indicator (Figure 3).We expect this week's US hard data to remain broadly resilient (ISM, JOLTS, jobless claims andthe NFP report for May). Our US economists expect NFP employment in particular to continue topost solid gains in May, with the headline moderating only slightly, from +177k to +150k, and a3m average of 171k.Tariffgyrations are unlikely to change G10 central bank policy direction in the near term.Accordingly, we continue to expect the BoC to stand pat on Wednesday, given higher coreinflation in April, and the ECB to cut its policy rate by 25bp on Thursday. Swiss inflation onTuesday could slide into negative territory for the first time since 2021 as the rents sub-indexresets and past currency strength feeds into prices. That said, President Schlegel pushed backagainst overreacting to such outcomes last week, hinting at a more gradual 25bp cut later inJune.Finally, US and global long-term rates rallied in the past week despite lingering concerns aboutthe fiscal bill and a weak ultra-long-end auction in Japan. We try to identify which G10 and EMcurrencies are mostaffectedby long-end yield gyrations, stripping out the influence of USequities and EURUSD. We find that, for the most part, currency markets have been largelyunaffectedby the moves in yields, with the notable exception of the JPY (Figure 4). We expectthis to remain the case absent non-linear dynamics similar to the immediateaftermathof"Liberation Day".2 Note: For details of our USD sentiment indicator, please see FX Views: Dollarsentiment: weaker than meets the eye.Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research, Barclays Research Investment Science Team1 June 2025 Major data/events/speakersFIGURE 5. Major data/events/speakers this weekDateData / Speaker / Event1-JunKorea: May tradeDataPeru: May Lima CPI2-JunGlobal PMIsSwitzerland: Q1 GDPUS: May ISM MfgIndonesia: May CPIIndonesia: Apr trade3-JunSwitzerland: May CPIEA: May CPIUS: Apr JOLTSChina: May Caixin PMI MfgTurkey: May CPI4-JunAustralia: Q1 GDPUS: May ADPUS: May ISM SvsKorea: May CPICzech: May CPICzech: Q1 wages5-JunJapan: Apr wagesSweden: May CPIFChina: May Caixin PMI SvsTaiwan: May CPIPhilippines: May CPIThailandd: May CPI6-JunUS: May labour markettCanada: May labour market1 June 2025 In focusSheryl Dong, Barclays, UK | Anastasiia Ergunova, Barclays, UK | Erick Martinez, BCI, US | SkylarMontgomery Koning, BCI, US | Audrey Ong, Barclays Bank, Singapore | LhamsurenSharavdemberel, BSJL, Japan | Lemon Zhang, Barclays Bank, SingaporeUSDNear-term pressures return, but the bar for sustained weakness is highAfterrebounding from the post-"Liberation Day" lows, the dollar has come under renewedselling pressures. More specifically, a combination of global bond market weakness and the re-emergence of local policy premia has served as the proximate trigger for bouts of weakness inthe past few weeks. Further bond market volatility, trade policy tensions orsofterUS data couldtake EURUSD closer to our 1.15 forecast. That said, the bar for further sustained weakness isquite high, with 1.15 itself potentially tooloftyto be a sustainable equilibrium. Stronger-than-anticipated US data (notwithstandingsofterelements in claims and Q1 GDP last week), theretracement ofeffectivetariffsto January levels, a stronger-than-feared fiscal impulse, tradefront-loading, the progress made on hedge ratios and still-stretched bearish USD sentiment allpose limits to the scope for sustained dollar weakness. This week, focusshiftsto important datareleases, namely ISM, JOLTS, jobless claims and the employment report for May. A number of