2025小型模块化反应堆——核能未来的现实路径研究报告

ROBIN GASTER|APRIL 2025 Standard large nuclear reactors won’t achieve scale or cost competitiveness with alternativeenergy sources. DOE should focus its resources on small modular reactors, which are a morepromising technology with the potential to achieve price and performance parity. KEY TAKEAWAYS Small modular reactors (SMRs) are the future of nuclear power, and they could becomean important strategic export industry in the next two decades. SMRs must get to sufficient scale so they can become cost competitive with other energysources including large reactors, renewables, and fossil fuels. DOE needs to develop independent assessment capabilities for SMRs (and othertechnologies) that focus on the pathway to price and performance parity (P3). All majorinvestments must be reviewed through the P3 lens (see box). DOE should maintain and expand its strong support for basic and applied nuclearresearch through the Advanced Reactor Development Program (ARDP) and DOE’s GenIII+program, including new test and demonstration sites at INL. DOE’s Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (OCED) must provide critical funding tohelp provide commercial viability, and the Loan Program Office (LPO) will need reformand restructuring to focus specifically on scale-up. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) reform is under way, but more is needed.Innovation requires iteration, and that requires new thinking. NEPA reform is alsoneeded, and so is improved interconnection of new energy sources to the grid. SMR markets will be global, so NRC and DOE must not ignore international regulation.United States, Europe, Japan, and other allies can align their regimes to help countercompetition from Chinese and Russian state-backed enterprises. itif.org CONTENTS Key Takeaways................................................................................................................... 1Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 3Introduction: Why SMRs Could Be Important ........................................................................ 8What Are SMRs? ............................................................................................................. 9The Potential for SMRs ..................................................................................................... 11New Markets for Nuclear................................................................................................ 11Manufacturing and Economies of Scale: Getting to P3...................................................... 15Shorter and Potentially More Predictable Construction Timelines ....................................... 17Lower Up-Front Capital Costs ......................................................................................... 18Low Operational Costs ................................................................................................... 18Low Life-Cycle Emissions............................................................................................... 19Firm Power, Reliability, High Capacity Factors, and Low Systems Costs.............................. 19Footprint and Siting Flexibility ....................................................................................... 20Longevity ..................................................................................................................... 20Avoiding Costly New Transmission Lines.......................................................................... 21Nuclear Power and National Security .............................................................................. 21Risks for SMRs ................................................................................................................ 22Technology Risks for SMRs ............................................................................................ 22Market Risks ................................................................................................................ 29Political Risks............................................................................................................... 39Regulatory Risks ........................................................................................................... 40Derisking SMRs ............................................................................................................... 46Nuclear R&D in the United States...................................................................................... 51Conclusions: Defending and Expanding the Innovation Agenda for SMRs ............................... 55Innovation .................................................................................................................... 56Risk and Derisking ........................................................................................................ 57Regulation...........................................................