The Blue Economy generated nearly US$300 billion for the African continent in 2018, creating 49 million jobs, and providing crucial benefits such as food security, livelihoods, biodiversity, and resilience to climate change. These benefits are entirely dependent on the health and productivity of coastal and marine areas. A robust Blue Economy could protect Africa from the worst effects of climate change, while current climate impacts are already hindering the continent from achieving the full potential of its Blue Economy.
Key climate change impacts on Africa:
- Temperature: Mean annual temperatures have increased by 0.2°C to 0.5°C per decade, with a likely global temperature increase of 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels expected in the next decade. High-emission scenarios project warming exceeding 3°C by 2100, except in Central Africa.
- Precipitation: Africa faces extreme precipitation changes, with droughts occurring alongside heavy rainfall days. Droughts are expected to increase in all regions except parts of East Africa and the Horn of Africa.
- Sea-level rise: Africa experienced above-average sea-level rise of five millimeters in 2019. By the end of the century, sea levels could rise by half a meter, impacting coastal cities and ecosystems.
Impacts on the Blue Economy:
- Coastal erosion: Climate change exacerbates coastal erosion, with economic costs ranging from 0.2% of GDP in Algeria to 3% in Tunisia.
- Fisheries: Climate change is altering fish migration patterns and reducing catch potential in tropical West African countries by 30% or more by 2050. The Gulf of Guinea and East African coastlines are particularly at risk.
- Water availability: Changes in rainfall and evaporation affect groundwater recharge, threatening water availability in water-scarce regions.
- Biodiversity: Climate change is driving ecological shifts, impacting species range, reproductive cycles, and increasing the risk of diseases and pests.
World Bank initiatives and financing:
- Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Provides global data on climate vulnerabilities and impacts.
- Wealth Accounting and the Valuation of Ecosystem Services: Promotes sustainable development by incorporating natural resources into economic accounting.
- Blue Economy for Resilient Africa Program: Offers multisectoral analytical, financial, and policy support to African coastal countries and island states.
- IDA20: The International Development Association’s 20th replenishment cycle aims to support a green, resilient, and inclusive recovery, with increased climate-related financing and a higher target for climate co-benefits.
Blue Economy and climate change mitigation:
- The Blue Economy focuses on capturing synergies between economic development and climate action, maximizing socioeconomic benefits while ensuring the continuous delivery of ecosystem services.
- The World Bank’s PROBLUE program supports the development of integrated, sustainable, and healthy marine and coastal resources, contributing to SDG 14 and building resilience to climate change.
- Regional initiatives like the Blue Belt Initiative in Morocco aim to foster sustainable economic activities based on circular and Blue Economy models.
