发改委新能源电价政策解读

Investmentconsultingbusinessqualification：CSRCLicense2012No669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货国际化研究CITICFuturesInternationalResearch20250317 IntroductoryOfNDRCNewEnergyElectricityPricePolicy 发改委新能源电价政策解读 张默涵ZhangMohan从业资格号QualificationNo：F03097187投资咨询号ConsultingNo：Z0020317 桂晨曦GuiChenxi从业资格号QualificationNo：F3023159投资咨询号ConsultingNo：Z0013632 CITICFuturesInternationalServicePlatform：httpsinternationalserviceciticsfcom 摘要Abstract OnFebruary92025NDRCandNEAjointlyissuedtheNoticeonFurtherMarketOrientedReformofNewEnergyFeedinTariffstoPromoteHighQualityDevelopmentofNewEnergyNDRCNo136ThispolicymarksthecomprehensivemarketentryofallnewenergygenerationallowingfeedintariffstobeentirelydeterminedbymarketmechanismsInordertoachieveasmoothmarketorientedtransitionofnewenergyunitsthepolicyhasusedCFDsprovidingacushionfornewenergyduringthetransitionperiodInadditionthispolicyproposestodistinguishbetweenexistingprojectsandnewprojectsandsetdifferentmechanismelectricitypricesAmongthemtheshorttermearningsofexistingprojectsarehigherthanthoseofnewprojectsandtheexpectedearningsremainrelativelystableInthefuturethepowergenerationsettlementofnewenergyprojectswillconsistoftwopartsmarketbasedtransactionsandmechanismsettlementThedeclineinelectricitypriceswillcontinuouslydragdowntheearningsofthemarketbasedtransactionpart RisksPolicychangessignificantvolatilityinfuelcostsandeconomicgrowth 2025年2月9日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局联合发布《关于深化新能源上网电价市场化改革促进新能源高质量发展的通知》（发改价格2025136号）。该政策标志着新能源全电量入市、实现上网电价全部由市场形成。为了实现新能源机组的市场化平稳过渡，将建立差价结算机制，为新能源提供过渡时期的“缓冲垫”。此外，该政策提出区分存量和增量项目，设置不同的机制电价。其中，存量项目的收益短期高于增量项目，收益预期维持相对稳定；未来新能源项目的发电结算将由市场化交易与机制结算两部分组成，电价下跌将持续拖累市场化交易部分的收益。 风险因素：政策变化、燃料成本大幅波动、经济增长 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。ThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessTheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFutureswillnotconsiderrelevantpersonnelascustomersduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthisreport 1PolicyTarget政策目标 OnFebruary92025theNationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionNDRCandtheNationalEnergyAdministrationNEAjointlyissuedtheNoticeonFurtherMarketOrientedReformofNewEnergyFeedinTariffstoPromoteHighQualityDevelopmentofNewEnergyNDRCPriceNo136hereinafterreferredtoasDocumentNo136 DocumentNo136aimstodeepenthemarketorientedreformofnewenergyfeedintariffsundertheoverarchingprinciplesofmarketdrivenpriceformationequitableresponsibilitysharingdifferentiationbetweenexistingandnewprojectsandcoordinatedpolicyimplementation AftertheimplementationofDocumentNo13680ofinstalledcapacityonthegenerationsideover80ofelectricitygenerationandapproximately80ofelectricityconsumptionontheusersidewillfullyentertheelectricitymarket 2025年2月9日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局联合发布《关于深化新能源上网电价市场化改革促进新能源高质量发展的通知》（发改价格2025136号）（以下简称“136号文”）。 136号文提出，按照价格市场形成、责任公平承担、区分存量增量、政策统筹协调的总体思路，深化 新能源上网电价市场化改革。新规落地后，将实现发电侧80的装机容量、80以上发电量、用户侧80 左右的用电量全部进入电力市场。 2StabilizedPricingMechanism机制电价 ThefeedintariffsfornewenergyhavetransitionedfromfixedpricingtomarketbasedtransactionpricingOverthepast15yearsnewenergyfeedintariffsevolvedfromsubsidybasedmodelstobenchmarkpricingIntheearlystagesduetohighperunitelectricitycostsnewenergyuniversallyadoptedsubsidizedpricingforgridintegrationWithtechnologicaladvancementsandindustrialscalingintherenewableenergysectorperunitelectricitycostsfellbelowthermalpowergenerationcostsbetween2019and2020Consequentlysubsidiesweregraduallyphasedoutfrom2019to2021achievingparitybasedgridintegration Post2024toenhancenewenergyconsumptionmultipleelectricitymarketizationpoliciesweresuccessivelyintroducedDocumentNo136nowproposestopropelthefullentryofnewenergygenerationvolumesintoelectricitymarketsandformpricesthroughmarkettransactions DocumentNo136outlinesthepathforthemarketizationofnewenergystatingthatstabilizedpricingmechanismandpricedifferencesettlementaremerelytransitionalmeasureswiththeultimategoalbeingfullmarketizationDocumentNo136meansthattherevenueofnewenergypowerplantswillbeentirelylinkedtomarketfluctuationswhilelocalgovernmentswillprovideonlylimitedsupportthroughpricedifferencesettlementInthefuturethemarketbasedproportionofbothexistingandnewprojectswillgraduallyincrease 2 新能源上网电价由固定电价逐步转向市场化交易电价转变。过去15年中，新能源上网电价由补贴模 式向标杆电价转变。随着新能源技术进步及产业规模化，度电成本在20192020年间下降至火力发电成本之下。20192021年新能源逐步取消补贴，实现平价上网。2024年后，为促进新能源电量消纳，陆续出台多个电力市场化政策。此次136号文标志着新能源项目全面入市的开端。136号文利用机制电价和差价结算过渡，最终实现完全市场化。新规意味着新能源电站的收益与市场波动挂钩，地方政府仅通过差价结算提供有限托底。未来存量项目、增量项目的市场化比例将逐渐上升。 图表1：新能源上网电价政策衍变 EvolutionofNewEnergyFeedinTariffPoliciesinChina PolicyDocument PricingMechanism SpecificPricing 2009 NoticeontheImplementationoftheGoldenSunDemonstrationProject Preconstructionsubsidies5070Gridintegrationatdesulfurizationcoalfiredbenchmarkprices Subsidies5070ofprojectcostFeedintariffLocallyapproveddesulfurizationcoalfiredbenchmarkprices 2011 NoticeonLeveragingPriceMechanismstoPromotetheHealthyDevelopmentofthePhotovoltaicIndustry Resourcezonebasedbenchmarkfeedintariffs ZoneI090RMBkWhZoneII095RMBkWhZoneIII100RMBkWh 2019 NoticeonRefining