新能源电价政策对光伏和储能需求影响

Investmentconsultingbusinessqualification：CSRCLicense2012No669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货国际化研究CITICFuturesInternationalResearch20250318 ImpactofNewEnergyPricingPoliciesonPVandESSDemand 新能源电价政策对光伏和储能需求影响 张默涵ZhangMohan从业资格号QualificationNo：F03097187投资咨询号ConsultingNo：Z0020317 桂晨曦GuiChenxi从业资格号QualificationNo：F3023159投资咨询号ConsultingNo：Z0013632 CITICFuturesInternationalServicePlatform：httpsinternationalserviceciticsfcom 摘要Abstract OnFebruary92025NDRCandNEAjointlyissuedtheNoticeonFurtherMarketOrientedReformofNewEnergyFeedinTariffstoPromoteHighQualityDevelopmentofNewEnergyNDRCNo136BeforethenewregulationstakeeffectonJune1itisexpectedtodrivepolysilicondemandandthedemandformaterialssuchascopperaluminumandglasswillalsobeboostedHowevertheinstalledcapacityinthesecondhalfoftheyearwillfacesignificantdownsiderisks RisksPolicychangessignificantvolatilityinfuelcostsandeconomicgrowth 2025年2月9日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局联合发布《关于深化新能源上网电价市场化改革促进新能源高质量发展的通知》（发改价格2025136号）。6月1日新规落地前或出现新能源项目的抢装行为，进而带动多晶硅需求，亦会提振铜、铝、玻璃等材料需求，但下半年装机量将面临显著下行风险。 风险因素：政策变化、燃料成本大幅波动、经济增长 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。ThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessTheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFutureswillnotconsiderrelevantpersonnelascustomersduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthisreport 目录Content 1RushInstallationofNewEnergyProjects3 新能源项目抢装3 11TheReturnsofExistingProjectsareBetter3 存量项目收益更优3 12ProjectRushInstallationBringsPolysiliconDemand5 项目抢装利多多晶硅需求5 2TransformationoftheEnergyStorageIndustry6 储能行业转型6 21MovingTowardsProfitDrivenGrowth6 走向盈利驱动6 22BeneficialtotheDevelopmentofSomeRegions9 利好部分地区发展9 2 1RushInstallationofNewEnergyProjects 新能源项目抢装 11TheReturnsofExistingProjectsareBetter 存量项目收益更优 TherevenueexpectationsforexistingprojectsareexpectedtoremainrelativelystableNewenergyprojectsputintooperationbeforeJune12025aredefinedasexistingprojectsThemechanismelectricitypriceforexistingprojectswillcontinuetobeimplementedatthecurrentpricewhichshallnotexceedthelocalcoalpowerbenchmarkpriceWithinthescaletheproportionofelectricitysubjecttothemechanismcanbedeterminedannuallybutitshallnotexceedthepreviousyearInprincipleexistingprojectsarestillencouragedtoenhancecompetitivenessthroughequipmentupgradesandrenovationsandtocontinueparticipatinginmarketorientedtransactionsOveralltherevenueofexistingprojectsisstillprotectedbythemechanismelectricitypriceintheshorttermandtherevenueexpectationsremainrelativelystable ThedeclineinelectricitypriceshasdraggeddowntheprofitexpectationsofincrementalprojectssuppressingthewillingnesstoinstallNewenergyprojectsputintooperationafterJune12025aredefinedasincrementalprojectsandtheirgridconnectedelectricitywillfullyenterthepowermarketinprincipleThegridconnectedelectricitypricewillbeformedthroughmarkettransactionsandnewenergyprojectscanparticipateintransactionsbyreportingquantitiesandpricesoracceptthepricesformedbythemarketIncrementalprojectsalsohavethemechanismelectricitypriceandpricedifferencesettlementpoliciesbutcomparedwiththeexistingprojectstheirguaranteecharacteristicsareweakerAgainstthebackdropofabundantpowersupplythelowmarginalcostofnewenergypowergenerationwilldirectlysuppresselectricitypricesThereforetheincreaseinnewenergymarketelectricitywillultimatelydragdowntheprofitexpectationsofprojectssuppressingthewillingnesstoinstall ThedifferentialsettlementmechanismisexpectedtomitigatefluctuationsinrevenueThevolatilityofrenewableenergygenerationissignificantwithavastdifferenceinpoweroutputbetweendayandnightforphotovoltaicsystemsleadingtothepossibilityofnegativeelectricitypricesduringpeakphotovoltaicgenerationperiodsinthedaytimeThenewlyintroduceddifferentialsettlementmechanismwillstabilizethepriceofelectricityincludedinthemechanismaroundthemechanismselectricitypricetosomeextentplayingaroleinmitigatingtherevenuefluctuationsofrenewableenergyprojects 3 ThereturnsofexistingprojectsarebetterthanthoseofnewprojectsandtheremaybearushtoinstallbeforethenewregulationstakeeffectOverallthepowergenerationsettlementoffuturenewenergyprojectswillconsistoftwopartsthemarkettransactionportionandthemechanismsettlementportionThedeclineinthecenterofelectricitypriceswillcontinuetodragdownthereturnsofthemarkettransactionportionbutthestablereturnsofthemechanismsettlementportionwilltosomeextentunderpintheprofitabilityofnewenergyprojectsConsideringthatthemechanismelectricitypricefornewprojectsislikelytobeformedthroughmarketbiddingandwillprobablybelowerthanthecoalpowerbenchmarkpricetheprofitabilityofexistingprojectsputintooperationbeforeJune1stisrelativelystrongerFromalongtermperspectivenewlycommissionednewenergyunitsneedtocontinuouslyinnovatetechnologyreducecostsandstrengthentheapplicationoftoolssuchasgreencertificatesandcarbonmarketstobroadenrevenuesourcesthroughmultiplechannels 存量项目收益预期维持相对稳定。2025年6月1日前投产的新能源项目被定义为存量项目。存量项目机制电价继续按现行价格执行，不得高于当地煤电基准价，在规模范围内可每年自主确定执行机制的电量比例，但不得高于上一年。原则上仍鼓励存量项目通过设备更新改造升级等方式提升竞争力，继续参与市场化交易。整体来看，存量项目的收益短期仍受到机制电价保