中国期货每日简报

Investmentconsultingbusinessqualification：CSRCLicense2012No669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期期货货国国际化际研化究研究CITIC中Fu信tur期es货In研ter究na所tionIanltRerensaetaiorcnhal2022042510030918 中国期货每日简报 ChinaFuturesDailyNote 桂晨曦GuiChenxi从业资格号QualificationNo：F3023159投资咨询号ConsultingNo：Z0013632 CITICFuturesInternationalServicePlatform：httpsinternationalserviceciticsfcom 摘要Abstract MacroNewsChinasmajoreconomicdataforFebwerereleasedandtheeconomyremainedbasicallystableSeveralgovernmentdepartmentsrespondedtothecallforexpandingconsumption FuturesPricesOnMarch172025bothstockindexfuturesandgovernmentbondfuturesdeclinedAmongthemthe30YearCGBfuturesdroppedby18Energychemicalfuturesperformedrelativelywellwhilemetalandagriculturalproductfuturesshowedmixedtrends 宏观方面中国2月主要经济数据出炉，经济基本持稳；多个政府部门响应扩大消费。 期货方面，2025年3月17日，股指期货和国债期货均下跌，其中三十年期国债期货下跌18；能化期货表现较好，金属和农产品期货涨跌不一。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。ThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessTheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFutureswillnotconsiderrelevantpersonnelascustomersduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthisreport 1ChinaFutures期货异动 11Overview行情概述 OnMarch172025bothstockindexfuturesandgovernmentbondfuturesdeclinedAmongthemthe30YearCGBfuturesdroppedby18Energyandchemicalfuturesperformedrelativelywellwhilemetalandagriculturalproductfuturesshowedmixedtrends ThetopthreegainerswereblockboardSCFISEuropeandglassBlockboardroseby47withapositionchangeof00MoMSCFISEuroperoseby34withapositionchangeof78MoMglassroseby16withapositionchangeof11MoMNoteBlockboardentersthedeliverystage ThetopthreeloserswereCokingCoalManganeseSiliconandSodiumHydroxideCokingCoalfellby18withapositionchangeof77MoMmanganesesiliconfellby22withapositionchangeof76MoMsodiumhydroxidefellby26withapositionchangeof217MoM 2025年3月17日，股指期货和国债期货均下跌，其中三十年期国债期货下跌18；能化期货表现较好，金属和农产品期货涨跌不一。 涨幅前三的品种是胶合板、欧线集运和玻璃，其中胶合板上涨47，持仓环比减少00；欧线集运上涨34，持仓环比增加78；玻璃上涨16，持仓环比增加11。（注：胶合板进入交割） 跌幅前三的品种是焦煤、锰硅和烧碱，其中焦煤下跌18，持仓环比增加77；锰硅下跌22，持仓环比增加76；烧碱下跌26，持仓环比增加217。 图表1：ChinaFuturesPriceTop10DailyRise 中国期货主力连续合约涨幅前十 图表2：ChinaFuturesPriceTop10DailyDrop 中国期货主力连续合约跌幅前十 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 05 00 2025317ChinaFuturesPriceTop10DailyRise 47 34 16 1212 10 0908070707 BBECFGSCAPPXLHTAURLCBC 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 2025317ChinaFuturesPriceTop10DailyDrop 1212121213 16 1818 22 26 RUNRJRBWRSITLJMSMSH SourceiFindCITICFuturesSourceiFindCITICFutures 2 12DailyRise上涨重点品种 121CrudeOil原油 OnMarch172025crudeoilpricesroseby12to5256yuanpertonOPECincreasedproductionisexpectedtoheighteninventoryaccumulationpressurethisyearwithcrudeoilpriceslikelytobevolatileandweak SupplysideOPECproductionroseby363000bpdinFebOPECreportand210000bpdIEAreportAtpresenttheplannedproductionincreasebyOPECstartingfromAprilremainsunchangedandthesupplypressurepersistsUSsanctionsonmajorproducerscontinuetodisruptsupplyexpectationsbuthavenotestablishedacleartrendincrudeoilsupplyDemandsideIntheweekofMarch14independentrefineriesinShandongandmajorrefineriessawtheiroperatingrateriseUSrefineryoperatingratesreboundedfrom859to865intheweekofMarch7enteringtheseasonalrecoveryperiodHoweverweakUSeconomicdataandtheEIAsdownwardrevisionofUSdemandforecastsby100000bpdfortheyeararedampeningdemandexpectationsInventorysidetheglobaloilinventoryisatalowlevelcomparedwiththesameperiodinthepastfiveyearsHoweverwiththecontinuousproductionincreasebyOPECthereisanexpectationofinventoryaccumulationwithinthisyear 2025年3月17日，原油上涨12至5256元吨。 OPEC增产加大年内累库压力，油价预计震荡偏弱。（1）供给端，OPEC月报显示OPEC2月产量增加363万桶日，IEA月报显示OPEC2月产量增加21万桶日，主由哈萨克斯坦、尼日利亚、伊朗贡献。目前OPEC4月开始的协议增产未有改变，供给压力仍在。美国对主要产油国的制裁政策继续扰动供应预期，但尚难以对原油供应产生趋势性指向。（2）需求端，3月14日当周山东独立炼厂开工率由4399增加至4496，主营炼厂开工率由7819升至7849。3月7日当周美国炼厂开工率由859回升至865，已逐步进入季节性回升期，但近期美国经济数据疲软，EIA短期能源展望将年内美国需求下调10万桶日。（3）库存端，3月16日当周全球陆上库存减少572万桶， 3月14日当周中国港口原油库存减少68万吨，3月7日当周美国商业原油库存增加1448万桶。全球石油库存处近五年同期低位，但OPEC持续增产的情形下年内存累库预期。 图表3：SinceJan2025CrudeOilhasdecreased 原油自2025年1月以来呈下跌态势 图表4：20250317CrudeOilincreasedby122025年3月17日原油上涨12 SourceiFindCITICFuturesSourceiFindCITICFutures 3 13DailyDrop下跌重点品种 131ManganeseSilicon锰硅 OnMarch172025ManganeseSiliconfellby22to6190yuanperton Theinventoryofmanganeseorewillcontinuetodeclinefurtheranditisexpectedtobevolatileandtrendslightlystrongerintheshortterm 1TradersareholdingfirmonpriceswhilefactoriesaremakingpurchasescautiouslyleadingtointensegamebetweensupplyanddemandCurrentlythecumulativedeclineinthepriceofchemicalcokehasreached340yuanpertonwhichisequivalenttoadecreaseofabout170yuanpertoninthecostofferrosiliconmanganese 2OnthesupplysideafactoryinaproductionareainInnerMongoliarecentlyignitedanewhighsiliconferrosiliconmanganeseDCfurnaceHowevertheexpectednewproductioncapacityofmostfactoriesisconcentratedinthesecondhalfoftheyearandcurrentlysomeindividualfactoriesarestillundergoingmaintenance 3OnthedemandsidedownstreamdemandisgraduallypickingupAlargesteelgroupinHebeiProvincetenderedfor11000tonsofferrosiliconmanganeseinMarchandthefinalpricingwas6400yuanperton 2025年3月17日，锰硅下跌22至6190元吨