世界能源展望特别报告—东南亚能源展望

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the full spectrum of energyissues including oil, gas and coal supply anddemand, renewable energy technologies,electricity markets, energy efficiency, access toenergy, demand side management and muchmore. Through its work, the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31member countries,13association countries andbeyond. SpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States IEA member countries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak Republic The European Commissionalso participates in the workof the IEA This publication and any map included herein arewithout prejudice to the status of or sovereigntyover any territory, to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers and boundaries and to thename of any territory, city or area. IEA association countries: ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine Foreword That is why the IEA is taking the major step of opening a new office– the Agency’s first office outside of its Paris headquarters in its50-yearhistory.It enables the IEA to deepen and expand itslongstanding collaboration with countries in Southeast Asia andbeyond as they navigate the significant energy opportunities andchallengesahead.Singapore,as Southeast Asia’s sustainablefinance hub, is the natural home for the new office. Today, anyone considering the world’s energy future has to pay closeattention to Southeast Asia, an economically dynamic region that hasbecome an increasingly influential force in the global energy system. Following two decades of remarkable growth, the countries of theAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are collectivelypoised to become one of the world’s top five largest economies by2030. At that point, Southeast Asia is also set to be home to nearlyone in every 12 people globally, with a population of over 720 million. ThisOutlookvividly underscores the increasingly deep partnershipbetween the IEA and ASEAN. It provides a thorough examination ofSoutheastAsia’s energy markets,energy security and climateambitions, exploring the challenges and opportunities for the regionin clean energy transitions. It incorporates a wide range of insightsand observations gained from dialogue with regional stakeholders. This sixth edition of theSoutheast Asia Energy Outlookfrom theInternational Energy Agency (IEA) confirms that this region is poisedto strengthen its position as an energy heavyweight. Southeast Asiaalone accounts for 25% of the increase in global energy demand to2035, and it is on track to surpass overall consumption in theEuropean Union by 2050. This report also represents a strong collective effort from across theIEA, with an excellent team working skilfully and tirelessly under theleadership of my colleague Tim Gould, our Chief Energy Economist.I would like to extend my gratitude to all those, both within andbeyond the IEA, whose expertise and support contributed to itsrealisation. The upshot is clear: for conversations on the biggest energy issuesof the day, from ensuring energy security to accelerating cleanenergy transitions, Southeast Asian countries must have a centralrole. Each of the ASEAN countries are diverse in their development,industry, politics, geography, and energy needs. Advancing cleanenergy transitions requires tailored strategies that consider bothregional and national contexts. Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director International Energy Agency Table of contents Executive summary .............................................................................................5Introduction ........................................................................................................11Energy in Southeast Asia..................................................................................141.1 Today’s energy trends................................................................................151.2 Economic and demographic prospects ......................................................291.3 Resources and geography .........................................................................331.4 Energy and climate policies........................................................................371.5 International context ...................................................................................41Southeast Asia’s energy outlook to 2050........................................................462.1 Total energy demand .................................................................................472.2 Total final energy consumption and emissions ..........................................512.3 End-use sectors..........................................................................................60Industry .........