万千流变，一如既往：2024人工智能产业30条判断

2024☭䈰冝茤☋╃30匜⯀偃 氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍ꯗꪍ㴝巬 2024.12.10 ┢ⶥ鿬⸉屋嶠⺮A㎈I缄╤労䧹汻掾 ㎈労 俚䰕匡徏氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍,2024䌑 ╚㎼䑑假䪫勘氠䕒㟲假䪫勘氠䕒┪假䪫勘澚䕒䥗假䪫勘澚䕒⯒假䪫勘 Y茤ⲇ ♈氯㲳⩱䌑溸䡇冎騜鱎 /2017-2018/ /2019/ /2020/ /2021/ /2022/ /2023/ 埛䑑⮱缋假嵴⽟̕劻䪫勘⮱假 䒔ꇔ鱪㎼鿕ꮪ䮅̕䧹潳绻鳷鰯 ┞⮘┪僓◥♣杅̕䔰◥┪┞⮘ ⻑◧臅劅羱假+⪴̕駮俚㲼缋嵴 ◧臅ⶨ羱鉿+̕溯俚╃㲼缋嵴 俚㲼ⸯ⯼气岛̕鱶ⲹ冝茤ⸯ气 ㎽俚㲼僓♣溸⹿㺥茺䴲ˋˋ氯㲳䑜ⲇ⸉䌑全뀨 僓ꭊ ㎈労騢鯪㸸㞝溸뀑⹿䟩⽱濫AI䧯╬⪢槊閤ꄢ溸呦䖦뀖意 2024䌑騢鯪㸸朮槏㳔㞝䱅◙绢·J·괽册襴㸸䖎JohnJ.Hopfield ⾕匮䑠ꓧ·E·ꀋ뀏GeoffreyE.Hinton♨銩䔓♑♰㐃㵄楓❈氠☭䈰玘缋羱缘ꂛ鉿勨㊮㳔▣做긖溸㕈熝䙎⹿楓⾕⹿僻ն 俚䰕匡徏氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍,2024䌑 ㎈労⹹儙⯒☭䈰冝茤뀖意⪼⹿㺥⸉瓨⚷䬕ꪍ⯒70䌑溸⽟劻 ㎽AI茤ⲇꂛ鴤绻┬溸䪫勘悎ꂛ鴤䔴 ꆒꀀ䲀槏╬╭臔撌⬑瞬յ駌焒茤ⲇ ♨嚤╭椚缛臔駉撌溸䠋䐮焒埛յյ駌㳔焒▣յ⾕⬑駉瞬砯╬ 臔撌㳔▣楒虹㝕埛㒘 臔撌䪃鉿┱獘⚷⶷✑楒虹 ☋气䝠䠋 俚䰕匡徏氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍,2024䌑 AI茤ⲇ 䝠䠋⛆槏獘⚷⶷✑ 䪃鉿㳔▣ ⬑瞬 駌焒䠋焒 GPT-4 Sora  GPT-3 CGhPaTt- ◩㝕㳔璇⮕闌╬ 广㳔䍳▣ 玘羱缋缘 勨㳔㊮▣ 䲀槏 ꆒꀀ fTorramnes-r 1956197419801987199520132020202120222023 2024 2025 2030僓ꭊ ⸉瓨气䧯䑑AIⲎꅌ☭䈰冝茤分╃⻔閕埛䍎氠悎ꂛ ㎽AI䍎氠┱茤ⲇ悎ꂛ⪸笡 ꆒꀀ䲀槏╬╭臔撌⬑瞬յ駌焒茤ⲇ♨嚤╭椚缛臔駉撌溸䠋䐮焒埛յյ駌㳔焒▣յ⾕⬑駉瞬砯╬ 臔撌㳔▣楒虹㝕埛㒘臔撌䪃鉿┱獘⚷⶷✑楒虹☋气䝠䠋 AI茤ⲇ 冝ⶖ䢘泈 冝茤駲偃 蔦뎴Ⲙ뎬 ┩缰ꓨ䐮 閗閚䠋焒둛绣鿴ⲙ뎴뎬 䝠䠋⛆槏 獘⚷⶷✑ 䪃鉿 冝茤鯵啃 CGhPaTt- GPT-4 气朮 Sora 冝ꓭ䢘鄌 冝⯜茤ꅐ ⶖ泈焒駮䍍 㵄僓漳䱽┱亣䱽冝茤❵䍎ꨄ 冝茤䈰⸅ 氠術䳀ꑟ冝茤㸍駲術朮煝⹿ 鿕鴤⶷⻎掾◥㜘槏 ⚑澶嵱駽 璇煝 冝 ⫰✑朮漳嵱 官骮뀔䫟 㳔▣ ⬑瞬ꆒ䲀ꀀ槏 勨㳔㊮▣ 玘羱缋缘 ◩㝕㳔璇⮕闌╬ 广㳔䍳▣ GPT-3 fTorramnes-r 駮⯋ 蔦撬 ☭莐駮⯋ 冝☆䢘ꄽ 俚㲼☭ 鿕鿵鴤羱 冝茤⟛뀎 騕꼟駮⯋冝茤槏鰡 ⹹娀駰冝茤䫌뀎 騕阌㜘槏 낊ꯟ駬⛓ AIGC 鿴ⲙ駲偃┱瞳句 ⶷✑勨㊮☭ 㝙倁⹿楓둛⮕㲳包倣煝⹿ 冝䢘氲羱 迀溮鯵缏卐뀔嵱 冝茤䢘徏 牕鰑分硅槏 冝茤騫䍳冝茤ⳟ嵱┱䐷⹿ 冝茤⢷鿕硅槏氲ⲇ䈪啃 冝茤鴤挮 駌焒鿕鿵駮⯋ 䠋焒 冝茤☆硅 冝䢘䈰㐌 俚䰕匡徏氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍,2024䌑 1956197419801987199520132020202120222023 2024 2025 2030僓ꭊ 掾☭䈰冝茤溸⹿㺥䉂⯒䧹汻掾 갫濫䪫勘茤ⲇ溸䳀ⶬ䪫勘ꂛ䑜⹿缋嵴ꂛ♈僀螅䑑䫸ꁒ假螅䑑☭䈰冝茤溸茤ⲇ䧯ꪍ⸉瓨䉂缋鳉㝉ꪍ⯒◗㸌䪨괛寛溸䧹汻掾 茤 勘䪫 ⲇ 澚䕒⯒假䪫勘澚䕒䥗假䪫勘 ㎽1䪫勘긞⾀溸⽟劻䙎獏䟩㎽ 睘┞ꮕ嫙 睘◝ꮕ嫙 睘┩ꮕ嫙 睘㎃ꮕ嫙 睘◩ꮕ嫙 假掼分䙎⿣㙨յꪍ假⾕分ꁣ╃ꅌ溸⮱晦假 ⪢䪫ꌄ勘겐✅聁笡⾕假㕈分熝╃駦յ偢 䓝⛻┬翞 ⮱긖分假䪆╃⾕䑳螅䉗㐙愗ⲇ溸⪢ 假䪆䑳䑑溸뀰锭䑑⮱ 假䧯分斀⿣䉂⾕缋假卐分䐮╃栃䱹皒ꂀ 溸䪫勘✅笡 ꏴꐴ劻 卐ꅐ螅䑑 䧯ꪍ劻 分╃ 䧯斀劻 㝕䪫晦勘掼 假分⿣յ假分╃յ假䪫勘✅笡䱹ꂞ⮃⻓䌔䭦缩剳假 氠䕒┪假䪫勘氠䕒㟲假䪫勘 ╚㎼䑑假䪫勘 ☋╃⹿㺥 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 ㎽2㝕埛㒘騕▄槏闌嵱駬䕒⮕鱂ⲹ㎽ GPT-4(few-shot)Claude3Opus(5-shot) Chinchilla70B(5-shot) Gopher280B(5-shot) PaLM Flan-U-PaLM540B Claude3.5Sonnet (5-shot) UnifiedQA11B GPT-2-XL1.5B(fine-tuned) RoBERTa-base125M(fine-tuned) 2019䌑7劓26傽2020䌑9劓7傽2020䌑10劓7傽2022䌑1劓21傽2022䌑3劓29傽2022䌑10劓5傽2022䌑10劓20傽2024䌑3劓1傽2024䌑3劓4傽2024䌑6劓20傽 俚䰕匡徏MMLU⪢璼MassiveMultitaskLanguageUnderstanding,氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍俠槏,2024䌑; 茤楓ⲇ뎧枱ⲘV崫S괛寛㷌뎧Ⲙ AI⚕╃溸䧹汻䪹䭃 㝕⸅OpenAI婞㜘◟♈茤ⲇ뎧Ⲙ⻔괛寛뎧Ⲙ鿛⺈溸掾 ㎽OpenAI溸⹿㺥鴤绻㎽ 鴤绻茤ⲇ뎧Ⲙ⹿㺥ꮕ嫙괛寛뎧Ⲙ⹿㺥ꮕ嫙 ⪫⺶岖槏 11⻐⽄䈰瑠膷䌔䧯皒Anthropic 錻ElonMusk鱎駱SamAltman瑠膷낊峒 눢鱪䊛绣璇㸉㳔뱚㵶㎑Ily闌a俆Sutskever瑠膷 臅⻉⮱㢽☭JohnSchulman瑠膷 鱪绣㸉뱚뀉潨⼅Ⲙ 겐✅㸉뱚뀉潨⼅Ⲙ 눢䊛䪫勘㴸MiraMurati瑠膷 䍎氠气䘒 㝃埛䘒 OpenAIAPI MuseNet DALL·EJukebox CLIP GPTs⹿䉘 DA Whisper ChatGPT LL·E3 GPTs┪绻 Sora SearchGPT DALL·E2 ChatGPTPro NLP GPT-4omini GPT- GPT-4 4VGPT-4o o1-mprienviiewo1婞䑑曬 僓ꭊ GPT-3.5 OpenAICodex GPT-3 GPT-2 GPT-1 2018.6 20192019.2 2019.4 2020 2020.52020.7 2021 2021.10 2022 2022.3 2022.9 2023 2023.3 2023.7 2023.10 2024 2024.2 2024.52024.72024.9 2024.12 俚䰕匡徏⪫䐷鰑倣,氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍俠槏,2024䌑; 㝕⸅蝠⚾ꁒꂞ缩┩姍䲀Ⲙ♈茤ⲇ⻔괛寛溸䧹汻鿛㒘 ㎽蝠⚾ꁒꂀ◩䌑溸侅⪝缏卐⮕䉘鱂ⲹ㎽ PC盛GPU╬╭ PC+俚䰕╚䖦GPU╬╭冝砯╚䖦GPU╬╭ 100.0% 50.0% 0.0% DataCenterProcessorsforAnalyticsandAIGPUsforComputersOther 53.3%50.5%46.5%46.3% 40.2% 39.4% 55.6% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 78.0% ♣銩分⿣>GeForXceavRieTrX2080 RTAX130090 OmnGirvaecreseGAPUvatarRTHX1400090 DGXH2G0H0200 NVGBSw20it0ch 䍎氠뀖㔔>╗☭PC 俚╗䰕☭╚PC䖦俚䰕╚䖦俚䰕╚䖦冝砯╚䖦冝砯╚䖦 DriveThor Tesla IBM Meta Tesla Amazon Meta 䍎氠㐙冎>廷䧮/蔦Ⲙ뎴뎬廷䧮/ⶔ㑊ꨄ둛䙎茤駉砯/⩧㴔㴺☭䈰冝茤/蔦Ⲙ뎴뎬气䧯䑑AI/◥駉砯⪾麄冝茤 俚䰕匡徏Nvidia,氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍俠槏,2024䌑; top3㵊䨮>DHePll VAmwazaorne AmazonAlphabet MAimcraozsoonft MicrosoftAlphabet MicrosoftAmazon 㝕⸅AI茤ⲇ䳀ⶬ䲀Ⲙ㝕⸅气䘒╃ⲏ㙨ꪍ◺괛㸌䪨AI괛寛掾 ㎽┩╗㝕⸅溸⬥⯈巷寊䌐掾⺈䝠⬔☳耘⩧ ┬鉿⽟劻 Meta 驟娬 䕼鿞 ┪鉿⽟劻 气䧯䑑AI╬䭊侬㝕⸅䐷⼅┪ⶬ⽟劻 AI䲀Ⲙ㝕⸅气䘒╃ⲏ㙨ꪍ㵄⻓ガ╃⺈⻓ ㎽┩╗㝕⸅ꂀ䌑溸侅⪝缏卐⺈䝠⬔ 240 Meta 98.4% 䌦⼴ ◥劚ⲏ11.0% 驟娬 ⪼♑0.4% ╗☭駉砯 䕼鿞 气☋ⲇ⹴╃ⲏ嵤瓨 190 140 ⯼2┩0㳌23䍳 駊꭛&䌐⺬&駦㜜10.9% 98.0% 䌦⼴ ◥劚ⲏ 䌦⼴侅⪝77.8% ⪼♑ 30.1% 冝茤◥37.9% 32.0% 90 4021䌑Q422䌑Q122䌑Q222䌑Q322䌑Q423䌑Q123䌑Q223䌑Q323䌑Q424䌑Q124䌑Q224䌑Q3 ⯼┩20㳌24䍳 12.9% 駊꭛&䌐⺬&駦㜜12.1% 0.4% 䌦⼴侅⪝74.6% ╗☭駉砯25.3% 气☋ⲇ⹴╃ⲏ嵤瓨31.7% 冝茤◥43.0% 俚䰕匡徏Microsoft,Google,Meta,ⶶ峪駩⯟,氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍,2024䌑 ㎽2024☭䈰冝茤⪮㸰溸╃ⲏ䉘㹾㸉嬠⮕卥 栃閤⫆⪮㸰ꂛ⪝♈茤ⲇ̕괛寛鿛⺈溸䧹汻⮕寊步 溯䈢冝茤 閗뀡 盛⼚ 䐷徏 倁㧅气䧯 冝茤ⲙ䩘 㝃埛䘒 Agent䌐⺬ 鉿╃┺氠埛㒘 AI䵎筻 砯ⲇ 䌐⺬ NLP AI廷䧮 AI缄盛 AIꓭ鄌 AIⶖ泈 AI璇煝 ꮕ鳢儘ꀳ관┞┧朮劓▇凊긖冝驙AIMiniMax AIinfra 俚䰕匡徏⪫䐷鰑倣氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍俠槏,2024䌑 㕈熝㝕埛㒘㺂 ╚ꭊ㺂 C盛䍎氠 B盛䍎氠 勨卐AIInfra儱䫌鰑勨卐㵇⩠AI䍎氠⮯儱㝕⸅溸㵇⩠ ㎽1劔鄌鰑溸假䧯皒⚕╃俚ꓪ⮕䉘䝠⬔㎽2㝧ꌄ㝕⸅䫌鰑AI⮱╃⪫⺶俚ꓪ⮕䉘䝠⬔ 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% AIInfra╚ꭊ㺂䍎氠㺂 69% 12% 18% 14% 4% 83% 2024䌑2023䌑 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% AIinfra╚ꭊ㺂䍎氠㺂 35% 12% 53% 13% 11% 76% 2023-20242022䌑⹴♨⯼ 俚䰕匡徏IT咕㲳յ⚕句句氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍俠槏,2024䌑 㜜峜假䧯皒⮱╃⪫⺶2022䌑11劓▇⻑䧯皒 㜜峜㝧ꌄ㝕⸅全锢缛駉ꮣꓧյ溯䍳յ营駗⾕㲼虹㎃㵶⚕╃䫌鰑俚䰕 C盛☋⿣ ╭锢侅⪝埛䑑 㴼⯜侅鰆 ⪢槊㝧ꌄAI⚕╃绳绳䉘㹾C盛分⿣뀖意 ㎽2024䌑⪢槊㝧ꌄAI⚕╃䉘㹾C盛分⿣溸⹿䉘僓ꭊ銩 㶕겐⹿䉘劻 骀 Llama3.2 7% ⚷⽄駊꭛ ⩹鰆 ⪼♑ CopilotPro 䩽㲳 Sora SunoV3 44% 41% 7% 溯䍳䵎筻AI䱲筻曬 RefusQwen2.5AutoGLM 鳢ꭄ HarmonyOSNext 庣䔕 Vimi 营駗⩧㵂 ┧焒 Claude3.5Haiku 嶯酧AIo1-preview 塁碋 Claude3.5Sonnet GPT-4o溯㸰䍎 ⫣먗儘缔 GeminiLive Copilot+PC 僓ꭊ 1劓2劓3劓4劓5劓6劓7劓8劓9劓 10劓 11劓 12劓 俚䰕匡徏⪫䐷鰑倣氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍俠槏,2024䌑 C盛☋⿣ 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 㓻㝧⺈䌝㝕椟傛2024䌑AI鱪绣䍎氠㐃〘ꓧ TOP1駧ꭄꓪM TOP2駧ꭄꓪM TOP3駧ꭄꓪM 溯䍳䵎筻AI 倁䖦┞阌 倁䖦┞阌 倁䖦┞阌 溯䍳倁䍍 溯䍳倁䍍 溯䍳倁䍍 骀 骀 骀 ㎽2024䌑⻄劓AI分⿣駧ꭄꓪ⯼┩⻐駧ꭄꓪ俚䰕鱂ⲹ㎽ 1劓2劓3劓4劓5劓6劓7劓8劓9劓10劓 俚䰕匡徏AI☋⿣囒,氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍俠槏,2024䌑; C盛☋⿣ガ╃愗ⲇ鿲㝕溸⩱䌑骮ꮺ╚C盛䍎氠㐙冎♇撬鿲㸵 ㎽氯㲳儘疿㑀吙笡ˋ气䧯䑑AI㐃C盛䍎氠㐙冎溸ガ╃愗ⲇ駬⛓ XNPS⡽ 䟩 ⼚ꓨ分⿣✅돂 潳乨䊎鯴 膴㝙勨㊮☭ 羱皭⮱䐮 ⼚ꓨガ╃訒㐌 ⩱䌑骮ꮺ 3D☆◧⫐㵽气䧯 儘ꀳ骮ꮺ ガ⿣㺥獏 術朮煝⹿ 俚㲼