您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。[宏源期货]:甲醇周报:关注回调后的试多机会 - 发现报告

甲醇周报:关注回调后的试多机会

2024-12-07詹建平宏源期货江***
甲醇周报:关注回调后的试多机会

关注回调后的试多机会 分析师:詹建平从业资格证号:F0259856投资咨询证号:Z0002423研究所能化研究室Tel:010-82292099Email:fanzhiying@swhysc.com [table_main]宏源公司类模板观点总结:本周甲醇价格延续回落,在2520附近获得支撑,符合我们在《甲醇周报20241129:回调幅度或不太深》里的判断:向上驱动释放一轮后,甲醇价格面临一定调整,我们认为本轮的回调幅度不会太深。本周内地烯烃外采需求有所放缓,现货价格整体走弱,盘面上部分多单获利离场。从基本面来看,甲醇供给端的减量预期仍存,加上当前MTO需求的支撑,甲醇价格深度回调也会引起下游的补库预期,我们当前仍将甲醇作为多配品种,关注MA01合约2500-2520之间试多机会。 策略建议:关注MA01合约2500-2520之间试多机会。 相关研究 《甲醇周报20240517:需求负反馈下,高价甲醇能走多远?》《甲醇周报20240524:空单仍可持有》《甲醇周报20240607:下方空间有限》《甲醇周报20240614:短期观望为主》《甲醇周报20240628:短期反弹,上方空间有限》《甲醇周报20240712:从交易现实到交易预期》《甲醇周报20240719:重回起点之后?》《甲醇周报20240809:短期区间震荡运行》《甲醇周报20240816:短期震荡寻底,但不必过度悲观》《甲醇周报20240913:抢跑宏观预期反弹,等待回踩确认底部》《甲醇周报20241108:短期有回调压力》《甲醇周报20241122:利多或已逐步兑现》《甲醇周报20241129:回调幅度或不太深》 风险提示:中美经济数据不及预期,油价大幅下跌,煤价大幅下跌。 目录 二、基差与价差.........................................................................................................................................................................4 华东地区现货贴水幅度加大..........................................................................................................................................................4 1、成本与开工:煤价延续偏弱震荡,气头检修开始兑现........................................................................................................52、库存:卸货情况良好,华东港口再度累库............................................................................................................................6 四、需求端分析...........................................................................................................................................................................7 1、MTO需求:内地外采需求放缓,下游开工小幅下滑...........................................................................................................72、传统需求:利润偏低,淡季需求有减量预期........................................................................................................................8 图表 图表1:【MA】主力合约收盘价(元/吨).................................................................................................................................4图表2:【MA】01基差(华东).................................................................................................................................................5图表3:【MA】01-05价差............................................................................................................................................................5图表4:【MA】煤制利润(元/吨).............................................................................................................................................5图表5:【MA】天然气制利润(元/吨).....................................................................................................................................5图表6:中国煤制甲醇周度开工率(%).....................................................................................................................................6图表7:中国天然气制甲醇周度开工率(%).............................................................................................................................6图表8:【MA】华东港口库存(万吨).......................................................................................................................................6图表9:【MA】西北地区库存(万吨).......................................................................................................................................6图表10:【MTO】西北装置利润(元/吨).................................................................................................................................7图表11:【MTO】华东装置利润(元/吨).................................................................................................................................7图表12:中国煤(甲醇)制烯烃周度开工率(%)...................................................................................................................7图表13:中国外采甲醇制烯烃企业周度开工负荷率(%).......................................................................................................7图表14:甲醇传统下游加权利润(元/吨).................................................................................................................................8图表15:甲醇传统下游加权开工率(%)...................................................................................................................................8图表16:【醋酸】利润(元/吨).................................................................................................................................................8图表17:【醋酸】周度开工率(%)...........................................................................................................................................8图表18:【甲醛】利润(元/吨).................................................................................................................................................9图表19:【甲醛】周度开工率(%)...........................................................................................................................................9图表20:【MTBE】利润(元/吨)...............................................................................................................................................9图表21:【MTBE】周度开工率(%)...........................................................................