2025年年度策略：乘政策东风，启价值新航

c 45007004000600350050030002500400200030015002001000 500100 00 2023-032024-03 成交额(亿元)收盘价 投资要点    请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 一、年初至今证券市场回顾4 1.一揽子政策出炉提振经济，国内主要指数全线上涨4 2.申万一级行业表现分化，非银金融行业涨幅居前4 3.国际市场主要指数涨幅不一5 二、国内外宏观经济展望6 1.国内宏观经济：经济持续复苏，内需接力外需6 2.国内宏观政策：财政政策和货币政策协调发力，一揽子政策出炉提振经济10 3.海外宏观经济：美联储降息路径延续，特朗普重返白宫15 三、A股流动性展望20 1.两市成交量激增，赚钱效应吸引居民资金持续入市20 2.公募基金发行表现持续向好，被动指数型基金发行热度有望延续20 3.投资者风险偏好改善，融资融券余额有望持续增加21 4.外资机构积极布局中国，北向资金有望持续流入22 5.政策鼓励上市公司回购和增持，助力资本市场稳定与繁荣22 6.保险资金是市场的重要增量资金，政策支持下未来保险资金流入规模有望提升24 四、2025年A股投资策略25 1.关注新质生产力的投资机会25 2.关注扩大内需带来的相关行业投资机会26 3.关注受益于大规模化债的相关行业投资机会27 4.关注央国企市值管理的投资机会27 5.看好黄金的中长期投资机会29 ......................................................................................................................5 ..................................................................................................................5 ....................................................................................................................................................6 ......................................................................................................................................................7 ......................................................................................................................................................7 ...........................................................................................................................................8 .....................................................................................................................................9 .......................................................................................................................................................9 ...............................................................................................................................................9 ..................................................................................................................................................10 ...................................................................................................11 ............................................................................................................................11 .................................................................................................................................12 ................................................................................................................................13 ....................................................................................................................................13 ...................................................................................................................15 ...................................................................................................................15 ..................................................................................................................................................16 ...............................................................................................................................................16 ............................................................................................................................17 .......................................................................................................................................17 .........................................................................................................................19 ...............................................................................................................................................20 .............................................................................................................................20 ...................................................................................................21 .................................................................................................................................21 ......................................................................................................................22 .................................................................................................................24 ..........................................................................................................29 ......................................................................................................................4 ......................................................................................................................................13 ...........................................................................................................................23 ........................................................................................................................23 ...............................................................