Prioritizing Heat Mitigation Actions in Indian Cities: A Cost-Benefit Analysis under Climate Change Scenarios
Key Points:
-
Background and Context:
- Heatwaves as a Hidden Hazard: Despite rising deaths and economic losses, heatwaves remain underrecognized.
- Indian Scenario: India is projected to face increasing heat stress, affecting over 1.4 billion people.
- Current Measures: Cities like Lucknow, Chennai, and Surat are developing Heat Action Plans combining physical cooling measures (urban greening, reflective roofs) and public health measures (heat-health early warning systems).
-
Research Objectives:
- Spatial Heat Risk Maps: Developed for Lucknow, Chennai, and Surat under various climate scenarios.
- No Intervention Scenario: Projected future health and economic losses.
- Cost-Benefit Analysis: Estimated costs and benefits of different heat mitigation actions.
-
Key Findings:
- Future Projections:
- By 2050, heat-related deaths could rise by one-third.
- Labor productivity losses could affect 2-4% of economic output.
- Benefit-Cost Ratios:
- Urban Greening: Benefit-cost ratio of 3:1.
- Heat-Health Early Warning Systems: Benefit-cost ratios exceeding 50:1, making them highly cost-effective.
-
Conclusion:
- Prioritization: Heat-health early warning systems should be prioritized for wider implementation due to their high effectiveness and cost-benefit ratio.
- Strategic Focus: Urban areas are more accessible and easier to manage compared to rural areas.
Summary:
This paper analyzes the impact of heatwaves on Indian cities, particularly Lucknow, Chennai, and Surat, under climate change scenarios. It develops spatial heat risk maps and models future health and economic losses, highlighting the effectiveness of various mitigation actions. Urban greening is found to be moderately cost-effective, while heat-health early warning systems are highly effective and cost-efficient, suggesting their priority for implementation.
