美国和加拿大建筑产品和材料2024年秋季（英）

U.S. and Canada Building Products and Materials Industry Insights

Executive Summary

• Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A): In the trailing twelve months to June 2024, 143 M&A transactions were completed, marking a 143% increase from the same period in 2023. Strategic buyers and sponsor-backed strategic buyers accounted for 91% of these transactions.
• Mortgage Rates: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.54% in August 2024, the lowest since October 2023, when it was at 7.66%.
• Construction Spending: U.S. nonresidential construction spending reached $1.2 trillion in May 2024, showing a 12% increase over the prior year.

U.S. Market Update

Housing Indicators

• Mixed Trends: The U.S. housing market continues to show mixed trends, with average 30-year mortgage rates dropping to 6.54% in August 2024 from 7.66% in October 2023.
• Single-Family Homes: The market for single-family homes remains sluggish, with nearly 60% of current homeowners holding mortgages of 4% or less. Home prices remain high, leading to a disconnect between buyers and sellers.
• Multi-Family Housing: Multi-family housing faces challenges due to increased borrowing costs and higher building material costs. Despite some stabilization in material prices, construction lead times and permitting and financing requirements are expected to slow recovery.
• NAHB Multi-Family Production Index (MPI): The MPI dropped to 44 in Q2 2024, down 12 points year-over-year, reflecting pessimism among developers.

Housing Starts

• Single-Family Homes: U.S. single-family housing starts increased by 5.4% year-over-year (YoY) in June 2024.
• Multi-Family Homes: Multi-family housing starts declined by 23.8% YoY in June 2024.

Home Prices and Sales

• Existing Home Prices: Median existing home prices increased 3.6% YoY in 2024, up 84% over the past decade.
• New Home Prices: Median new home prices remain elevated but have stabilized from 2022 levels. New home sales are expected to increase by 1.5% YoY in December 2024.
• Home Sales: Existing home sales are expected to increase by 3.6% YoY in December 2024, driven by a shortage of new residential construction.

Home Remodeling Activity

• LIRA Projections: The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) showed a dramatic decrease of 6.3% in Q2 2024. Remodeling activity is expected to decline further in 2024 and 2025 due to higher housing prices and interest rates.

Canadian Market Update

Housing Indicators

• Housing Starts: Canadian housing starts decreased by 15.7% YoY in June 2024 and by 9.4% compared to May 2024. Multi-unit housing starts decreased by 18.8% YoY.
• Building Permits: The value of authorized building permits declined by 13.9% month-over-month (MoM) in June 2024 and by 16.8% YoY, primarily due to a 29.7% decline in the nonresidential category.

Overall, the U.S. and Canadian building products and materials industries are experiencing mixed trends, with key factors including mortgage rates, construction spending, and housing starts playing crucial roles in shaping the market outlook.