The Changing Wealth of Nations - Global Assessment of the Economic Value of Non-Wood Forest Ecosystem Services

2024 PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized TheCHANGING WEALTHofNATIONS TECHNICALREPORT GlobalAssessmentoftheEconomicValueofNon-WoodForestEcosystemServices 2030406080100120140160 ©2024InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW WashingtonDC20433 Telephone:202-473-1000Internet:www.worldbank.org ThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent. TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,completeness,orcurrencyofthedataincludedinthisworkanddoesnotassumeresponsibilityforanyerrors,omissions,ordiscrepanciesintheinformation,orliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforfailuretousetheinformation,methods,processes,orconclusionssetforth.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries. NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved. RIGHTSANDPERMISSIONS Thematerialinthisworkissubjecttocopyright.BecauseTheWorldBankencouragesdisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornoncommercialpurposesaslongasfullattributiontothisworkisgiven. Anyqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Design:ClarityGlobalStrategicCommunicationswww.clarityglobal.net Acknowledgements Authors:JuhaSiikamäki,ChiefEconomist,InternationalUnionfortheConservationofNatureMatíasPiaggio,Economist,InternationalUnionfortheConservationofNature NataliadaSilva,AssistantProfessor,UniversidaddelaRepúblicaIgnacioÁlvarez,AssistantProfessor,UniversidaddelaRepúblicaZiyanChu,Consultant TheauthorswouldliketothankStefanieOnder,DiegoHerrera,GlennMarieLange,EstherNaikal,StefanoPagiola,GrzegorzPeszko,andRobertB.Smithfortheirhelpfulinputthroughoutthisresearch.WealsothankHelenaCárdenas,FranciscoSantiago-Ávila,andPeterVailfortheirassistancewiththisandearlierversionsofthisassessment. ThisreportreceivedfinancialsupportfromtheGlobalProgramonSustainability(GPS)trustfundandthePROGREENtrustfund. CONTENTS TABLESANDFIGURESv ACRONYMSANDABBREVIATIONSvii 1.INTRODUCTION1 2.DEVELOPMENTOFDATABASEOFNON-WOODFORESTECOSYSTEMSERVICE VALUATIONSTUDIES4 2.1LiteratureReviewandDataExtraction4 2.2ValueEstimatesbyEcosystemServiceandEstimationMethod7 2.3GeographicalDistributionofValuesbyEcosystemService10 2.4ValueEstimates12 2.5LEicnoksaygsteesmwAitchctohuenStyinsgtemofEnvironmental-EconomicAccounting–13 3.METHODSFORTHESPATIALESTIMATIONOFTHEVALUEOFNON-WOODFOREST ECOSYSTEMSERVICESGLOBALLY19 3.1Overview19 3.2EstimationMethods19 3.2.1Meta-RegressionAnalysis22 3.2.2MachineLearning22 3.2.3ModelComparisonandStatisticalCriteriaforModelSelection25 3.3GlobalPredictions26 4.DATABASECONSTRUCTIONANDDESCRIPTIVEANALYSIS30 4.1ConstructionofGlobalVariables30 4.2LinkingtheWorldGridtotheStudySiteLocations34 4.3DescriptiveAnalysis34 4.3.1DescriptiveStatisticsEstimationDataset34 4.3.2ComparingtheEstimationDatasetandtheWorldGrid38 5.ESTIMATIONRESULTSANDGLOBALPREDICTIONS39 5.1EstimationResults39 5.1.1Meta-RegressionAnalysis39 5.1.2MachineLearningModels43 5.1.3ModelSelectiontoGenerateGlobalPredictions50 5.2GlobalPredictions51 5.2.1GlobalPredictionsbyEcosystemService51 5.2.2AggregateGlobalPredictions54 5.3ResultsComparisonwiththePreviousAssessments56 6.CONTRIBUTIONOFPROTECTEDAREASTOTHEVALUEOFNON-WOODFOREST ECOSYSTEMSERVICES59 7.DISCUSSION62 REFERENCES65 APPENDIX1:Updatethemetadataanalysisbyincorporatingnewlyavailablestudies69 A1.1Identifyingpotentiallyrelevantstudiestoupdatethepreviousdatabase69 A1.2Studyreviewprotocol71 A1.3Determiningtheapplicabilityofvalueestimatesforthisassessment72 A1.4Valueestimatesbyecosystemservicesandestimationmethod76 A1.5Geographicaldistributionofvaluesbyecosystemservice78 A1.6Summaryofvalueestimates82 APPENDIX2:Listofstudies(includedandexcluded)83 A2.1Listofstudiesincludedinthemeta-analysis83 A2.2Papersreviewedandnotincludedinthemeta-analysis98 A2.3Papersunabletoretrieve153 APPENDIX3:Studyreviewqualitycontrol/qualityassuranceprotocol155 APPENDIX4:Currencyconversion156 APPENDIX5:Statisticalmethods158 A5.1Generalapproach158 A5.2Meta-regressionanalysis160 A5.3Machinelearningalgorithms161 A5.3.1ClassificationandRegressionTree(CART)161 A5.3.2Randomforest(RF)161 A5.3.3BayesianAdditiveRegressionTrees(BART)162 A5.3.4Variableselectionmethods164 A5.3.5Automatedmachinelearning(AML)165 APPENDIX6:GISdataprocessingandvariablesconstruction167 A6.1Worldgriddata167 A6.2GISdataprocessing,datadescriptionandsources167 A6.3Constructingdataonaccessibleforest182 APPENDIX7:Resultsadditionaltablesandfigures183 APPENDIX8:Globalpredictionsbymodel196 APPENDIX9:Regionaland