[世界银行]：Gabon Economic Update

Growth Deceleration: Global and CEMAC region economies have seen slower growth, including Gabon.
Lower Growth in Gabon: In 2023, Gabon experienced reduced growth due to lower global demand and disruptions in wood and mining transportation caused by adverse weather conditions.
Inflation and Poverty: Inflation pressures have eased, but poverty has increased due to population growth, high unemployment, and insufficient economic expansion.
Credit Access: Credit access has expanded, but lending to private firms remains a constraint for economic growth.
Fiscal Revenues: Fiscal revenues increased in 2023, but public spending has risen sharply, reducing fiscal space and contributing to higher debt risks.
External Position: Gabon's external position remains strong due to commodity exports, though with a smaller trade surplus.
Outlook: Gabon's modest recovery is expected to continue, albeit with higher risks. Sustained growth will require strong reforms and impactful measures to improve business conditions and public finances.

GDP Growth: Real GDP growth has decelerated from 2019 to 2025.
Sectoral Contributions:
- Supply-Side: The oil sector remains crucial for Gabon's economy.
- Demand-Side: The supply side contributed more significantly to GDP growth from 2019 to 2024.
Inflation: Inflation rates have decreased since January 2020.
Employment: Formal employment across sectors, particularly in the private and public sectors, has fluctuated.

Forestry Sector:
- Conservation and Sustainability: Gabonese forests are vital for the wood industry and provide climate services.
- Economic Contribution: The forestry sector is a key driver in Gabon's diversification agenda.
- Carbon Absorption: Gabon plays a significant role in carbon absorption.
Climate and Forestry Policies:
- Global Climate Financing: Ambitious but challenging to build effective mechanisms.
- Log Export Ban: Potential to promote higher value-added for local industries.
- EU Regulation: Impact on deforestation-free products.
Environmental Fiscal Policy:
- Trade-offs: Balancing fiscal instruments for public finances and sustainable forestry.
- Fiscal Instruments: Impact on firms, jobs, public finances, and the environment.
Opportunities for Reform:
- Tax Calibration: Incentivizing sustainable wood production.
- Bonus-Malus System: Using taxes on non-sustainable production to finance sustainable practices.
- Fiscal Policy Goals: Achieving fiscal, economic, and environmental objectives through reforms.

Figure 1: Real GDP growth (percent) from 2019 to 2025.
Figure 2: CEMAC reserves and exchange rate from 2017 to 2023.
Figure 3: Oil sector's importance for Gabon's economy.
Figure 4: Supply-side contribution to real GDP growth (percent) from 2019 to 2024.
Figure 5: Demand-side contribution to real GDP growth (percent) from 2019 to 2024.
Figure 6: Monthly inflation rates (y-o-y) from January 2020 to January 2024.
Figure 7: Employment per sector (percent of formal private and public jobs) as of 2024.

This summary highlights the key economic trends, challenges, and opportunities in Gabon, focusing on fiscal policies and sustainable forestry.

Gabon Economic Update