[理特咨询]：Making the shift

Introduction

Initial Optimism: When Arthur D. Little (ADL) established its Future of Mobility Lab in 2010, there was significant optimism that more sustainable, resilient, safe, inclusive, efficient, and human-centric mobility systems would be realized by now.
Current Reality: Despite technological advancements in digitalization, connectivity, and automation, progress towards these goals has been slower than anticipated. Public transport, active mobility, and "new mobility" solutions have seen some growth, but private car usage remains dominant.

Key Data and Trends

Modal Split:
- Trips: From 2007-2012 to 2023, the share of sustainable modes (mass transit, walking, cycling, and shared mobility) increased from 57% to 65% globally.
- Passenger Kilometers (pax-km):
  - Urban Areas: Private cars account for about 70% of pax-km.
  - Rural Areas: Private cars account for about 90% of pax-km.
Citizen Survey:
- Over 70% of citizens use private cars for daily commutes.
- 42% of citizens would consider giving up at least one car if adequate alternatives were available.

Transport Externalities

CO2 Emissions: Transport accounts for 25-40% of national CO2 emissions in Europe, with a steady increase since 1990.
Casualties: Despite reduced congestion during the pandemic, levels have risen again, and average commuting times have not improved.

Challenges and Solutions

Mobility Vision and Policy:
- Climate Change Mitigation: Significant progress in developing long-term mobility visions and policies, especially in Europe through Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMPs).
- Electrification: While important, it alone is insufficient. Other levers like modal shift and transport-demand reduction are necessary to maximize impacts.
- Key Levers:
  - Transport Demand Reduction: Reducing unnecessary trips, shortening travel distances, and employing behavioral change strategies.
  - Modal Shift: Promoting less energy-intensive modes like public transport, active mobility, and new mobility solutions.
  - Decarbonization Through Electrification: Using electricity from low-carbon sources and improving energy efficiency.
Integrated Strategy:
- France: Improved energy efficiency and carbon intensity through electrification, but a 24% modal shift to private vehicles and a 30% decrease in vehicle occupancy rate led to rising CO2 emissions.
City of Proximity Concept:
- Urban Spatial Planning: Shifting public spaces away from car-centric policies towards more sustainable and livable cities.
- Examples: Cities like Paris, Portland, Melbourne, Glasgow, and Copenhagen have implemented partial versions of the "15-minute city" with positive results in reducing congestion, pollution, and improving quality of life.

Conclusion

Comprehensive implementation, appropriate funding, and robust governance are needed to accelerate the shift towards sustainable mobility.
Addressing climate change requires a multi-lever approach, including transport demand reduction, modal shift, and decarbonization through electrification.
The "city of proximity" concept holds significant potential to contribute to sustainable mobility by reshaping urban spaces and mobility behaviors.

Making the shift