波兰能否保持对中国投资的吸引力？

WillPolandRemainanAttractivePlaceforChineseInvestment? 波兰能否保持对中国投资的吸引力？ ByMarcinWnukowskiandDanRoules ChineseinvestmentinPolandhasgrownsignificantlyoverthepastdecade,risingtomorethanUS$338millionby2020,alevelnearlyeighttimesthelevelin2013.1AccordingtothePolishgovernment,ChineseinvestmentsinPolandaggregatedtoUS$2.2billionbytheendof2020.TheeffectsofCOVID-19inbothcountriesandtheincreaseininternationaltensionsduring2021and2022resultedina declinefromthepeakinvestmentlevels,yetChineseinterestinPolandcontinues.MajorPRCmanufacturingcompanies,suchasGuangxiLiugong,HubeiSanhuan,TCL,Nuctech,TPV,DalianDarent,CIMCVehicles,HongboCleanEnergy,BWI,BiotonBiopharmaceuticals,SDICZhonglu,CathayPacificHuarong,Xinzhoubangandothers,andChina’sinformationandcommunicationleaders,suchasHuaweiandZTE, havealsomadesignificantinvestmentsinPoland.Financialinstitutions,suchasChinaConstructionBank,China-CentralandEasternEuropeInvestmentCooperationFund,andHaitongBank,haveallestablishedoperationsthereinrecentyears.2Whatexplainsthisattractionforacountrywhosepopulationissmallerthananaverage-sizeprovinceofChina? HistoryofCooperation–Polish-Chinesetraderelationsdatebackto1951,andPolandhasseeninvestmentfromChinasincethen.In1988,abilateralinvestmentagreementwassigned.Intheearlyyears,PRCinvestorstypically wereexploringopportunitiestoworkascontractorsorsubcontractorsonPolishpublictenders,particularlyintheconstructionsector.Morerecently,ChinaandPoland haveexploredaframeworkforparticipationinChina’sBeltandRoadInitiative.In2015,thetwocountriessignedamemorandumofunderstandingtocooperateonthisinitiative.Sincethismoment,thevolumeoftradebetweenPolandandChinahasrisensteadily–fromUS$17billionin2017toUS$42billionin2021. EconomicPosition–DespiteCovidslowdownin2020andtheconflictinUkrainein2021,Poland’sGDPcontinuedtogrow–+6.8%in2021withastill-positiveforecastof +4.1%in2022.Nevertheless,maintenanceofthepositivegrowthrateofthePolisheconomywillrequiremoreforeigninvestmentsinalmostanysectoroftheeconomy.GivenitssizerelativetoneighbouringcountriesinCentralandEasternEurope,thismakesitparticularlyattractiveasadestinationforforeigninvestment. 12021StatisticalBulletinofChina’sOutwardForeignDirectInvestmentissuedbythePRCMinistryofCommerce(MOFCOM),NationalBureauofStatisticsandStateAdministrationofForeignExchange. 2Country(Region)GuidelinesforForeignInvestmentandCooperation,issuedbyMOFCOM,theInternationalTradeandEconomicCooperationResearchInstitute,EconomicandCommercialOfficeoftheChineseEmbassyinPolandandDepartmentofForeignInvestmentandEconomicCooperation. 在过去的十年里，中国在波兰的投资有了显著的增长，到 2020年将超过3.38亿美元，是2013年总投资额的近8倍1。 根据波兰政府的统计数据，截至2020年底，中国在波兰的投资和资产总市值已累计达到22亿美元。2021年和2022年期间，两国因受新冠疫情的影响以及国际局势的日益紧张而导致投资水平从峰值回落，但总体上中国对波兰的兴趣仍在。重要的中国制造企业，如广西柳工、 湖北三环、TCL、同方威视、冠捷科技、大连达伦特、中集车辆、鸿博清洁能源、京西重工、佰通生物制药、国投中鲁、国泰航空、华融、新宙邦等，以及中国的信息和通信领军企业，如华为和中兴，都在波兰进行了大量投资。近年来，中国建设银行、中国-中东欧投资合作基金和海通银行等金融机构都在波兰开展了业务。2是什么原因让一个人口少于中国某中型省份的国家具有如此大的吸引力？ 合作历史——波中贸易关系可以追溯到1951年，从那时起，波兰就开始引入中国的投资。1988年，双方签署了一项双边投资协议。在早期，中国投资者，尤其是建筑行业的投资者，通常寻求担任波兰公共招标的承包商或分包商的机会。近几年，波兰开始和中国探讨参与“一带一路”的框架方案。2015年，两国签署了一份谅解备忘录，进行合作。从这一刻起，波兰和中国之间的贸易额稳步上升-从2017年的170亿美元增加到2021年的420亿美元。 经济地位—尽管2020年发生新冠疫情，2021年发生乌克兰军事冲突，但波兰的GDP仍然维持增长态势--2021年 +6.8%，2022年预测仍能保持+4.1%的增速。然而，要维持波兰经济的正增长，就要求几乎所有的经济部门引入更多的外资。鉴于其相对于中欧和东欧邻国的规模，它作为投资目的地对外资具有特殊的吸引力。 12021年由中国商务部、国家统计局和国家外汇管理局发布的《中国对外直接投资统计公报》 2由商务部、国际贸易与经济合作研究院、中国驻波兰大使馆经济商务处和外国投资与经济合作部发布的《外国投资与合作国家（地区）指南》 1 EUAccess–AsanEUmemberstate,PolandoffersChineseinvestorsagatewayforfurtherexpansionintotheEUmarket.Duetoitssize,population,andeconomicgrowthrates,PolandhaslongservedasafootholdforforeigninvestorsconsideringexpansionintotheCEEregion.Polandmayserveasalower-costandmoredynamicentrypointthanmanymemberstatesfurthertothewest. StableLegalandPoliticalSystems–Polandiswidelyseenasawell-groundedandstablelegalenvironmentasfarasbusinessisconcerned.Thecountryenjoysalargepoolofskilledworkers,whoworkatcompetitiveemploymentcostscomparedtowesternEuropeaneconomies,andarelesslikelytobeunionised.ThePolishLabourCodealsohasfewerformalitiesthenmanycivillawjurisdictions,offeringgreater flexibilityforemployers. ReceptivitytoChineseInvestment–ThePolishgovernmenthasdemonstratedageneralwillingnesstowelcomeforeigndirectinvestmentinanyform–whetherintheformofagreenfieldinvestmentorthetakeoverofanexistingbusiness.ForeigndirectinvestmentinPolandhastraditionallybeensubjectonlytolimitationsinthosecertainsectorsthatareconsideredessentialfornationalsecurity,suchaselectricityproduction;oilandgasdistributionand storage;productionofexplosives,weaponsandammunition;andfewothers.LikeotherEUmemberstates,in2020,PolandextendeditsforeigninvestmentcontrollawstoprovideforgreateroversightovertakeoversofstrategicPolishfirmsbynon-OECDinvestors,butthatprocesstodatehasnotbeenappliedtodisadvantageinvestorsfromChina.Theex-antereviewprocesshasbeeninitiatedonseveraloccasionssinceitsimplementation,but,eachtime,thePolishauthoritieshaveapprovedthecontemplatedtakeover(including,forexample,theacquisitionoftheautomotivelogisticsservicecompany AdamedbyChangjiuLo