油脂日报：原油价格下跌，油脂受挫回调

研究院农产品组 油脂观点 研究员 邓绍瑞010-64405663dengshaorui@htfc.com从业资格号：F3047125投资咨询号：Z0015474 ■市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2501合约8724元/吨，环比下跌128元，跌幅1.45%；昨日收盘豆油2501合约8144元/吨，环比下跌78元，跌幅0.95%；昨日收盘菜油2501合约9443元/吨，环比下跌34元，跌幅0.36%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9030元/吨，环比下跌170元，跌幅1.85%，现货基差P01+306，环比下跌42元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8200元/吨，环比下跌50元/吨，跌幅0.61%，现货基差Y01+56，环比上涨28元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9470元/吨，环比下跌40元，跌幅0.42%，现货基差OI01+27，环比下跌6元。 李馨lixin@htfc.com从业资格号：F03120775投资咨询号：Z0019724 近期市场咨询汇总：中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，截止到2024年第41周末，国内进口大豆库存总量为683.7万吨，较上周的667.2万吨增加16.5万吨，去年同期为498.3万吨，五周平均为677.9万吨。阿根廷豆油(11月船期)C&F价格1073美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调8美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(1月船期)C&F价格1062美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调7美元/吨。进口菜籽油C&F报价：加拿大菜油(11月船期)1010美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；加拿大菜油(1月船期)980美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平。 联系人 白旭宇010-64405663baixuyu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114139 昨日三大油脂价格震荡下跌，受国际油价和美豆下跌影响，国内油脂受挫高位回调，棕榈油领跌三大油脂。菜油方面，目前国内菜油库存仍然在高位，短期供应无忧，但是明年一季度后菜籽有收紧预期。经过近一个月市场消息被充分计价，菜籽油价格目前过高，市场有多种油脂性价比比菜籽油高，受宏观因素和远期供应收紧影响，菜籽油远月依旧有一定概率继续上涨。 薛钧元010-64405663xuejunyuan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114096 ■策略 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 谨慎看涨 ■风险 无 目录 策略摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1油脂市场分析....................................................................................................................................................................................4 图表 图1:全球大豆库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图2:全球菜籽库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图3:马来西亚初榨棕榈油产量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................6图4:马来西亚棕榈油单产丨单位：吨/公顷.................................................................................................................................6图5:马来西亚棕榈油出口丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图6:马来西亚棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图7:印度尼西亚棕榈油出口量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................7图8:印尼棕榈油期末库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................7图9:中国主要油厂豆油库存丨单位：万吨..................................................................................................................................7图10:中国沿海油厂菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................7图11:华东菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................................7图12:中国棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................7图13:三大油脂库存丨单位：万吨................................................................................................................................................8图14:菜油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................8图15:中国豆油进口量丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................8图16:中国棕榈液油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................8图17:天津一级豆油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................8图18:广东棕榈油基差丨单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................................8图19:江苏四级菜油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图20:广东区域豆-棕油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图21:广东区域豆-菜油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图22:菜油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图23:豆油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图24:棕榈油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.............