更新的基于行动的财政整合数据集（英）

An Updated Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation

Introduction

This paper presents a dataset of fiscal consolidation for 17 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies during 1978-2020 and 14 economies in Latin America and the Caribbean during 1989-2020. The dataset builds on earlier work by IMF staff and follows a historical approach similar to that of Ramey and Shapiro (1998), Ramey (2011), and Romer and Romer (2010).

Methodology

Motivation of Measures

A key aspect of the methodology involves examining policymakers' intentions to ensure that fiscal measures were primarily motivated by the desire to reduce the budget deficit rather than responding to prospective economic conditions.

Budgetary Effects

The budgetary impact of these measures is also analyzed using contemporary policy documents, including:

• Budget Reports
• Central bank reports
• Convergence Programmes and Stability Programmes submitted to the European Commission
• IMF and OECD reports

Data Coverage

• 17 OECD Economies (1978-2020): Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
• 14 Economies in Latin America and the Caribbean (1989-2020): Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Jamaica, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay.

Detailed Cases

• 17 OECD Economies: The data are presented annually and include 242 cases of fiscal policy consolidation.
• 14 Economies in Latin America and the Caribbean: The data include 82 cases of fiscal policy consolidation.

Historical Sources

The historical sources examined include:

• Budget Reports
• Central bank reports
• Convergence Programmes and Stability Programmes submitted to the European Commission
• IMF and OECD reports

Challenges Addressed

The conventional approach to identifying fiscal policy consolidation based on statistical concepts like the cyclically-adjusted primary budget balance (CAPB) suffers from measurement errors and reverse causality issues. This historical approach avoids these problems by focusing on fiscal actions motivated by deficit reduction, making it more reliable for estimating the macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation.

Conclusion

This dataset provides a comprehensive and accurate framework for understanding and analyzing fiscal consolidation policies across different economies, offering valuable insights for policymakers and researchers.