2024年水电供应链缺口分析报告

Hydropower Supply Chain Gap Analysis

Executive Summary

In response to Executive Order 14017 on America’s Supply Chains, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducted a "deep dive" into the renewable energy supply chain, focusing on hydropower and large power transformers. Since then, the Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) has aimed to enhance the understanding of the hydropower supply chain and develop strategies to address its challenges. This report specifically focuses on large hydropower systems (greater than 100 MW), though the recommendations are expected to benefit all hydropower systems. Given that the federal government owns nearly 50% of conventional hydropower systems, with 40% (18 GW) of these units being at least 100 MW, the federal fleet serves as a foundation for developing the supply chain for the broader industry.

The DOE’s Secretary of Energy requested WPTO to engage the hydropower community to identify strategies for securing and encouraging domestic manufacturing. WPTO has identified three key focus areas:

1. Market Definition: Defining the market for rehabilitation and new construction of the hydropower fleet.
2. Policy Insights: Providing insights for policies, incentives, loan programs, and technology investments to promote domestic content.
3. Manufacturing Capabilities: Defining the existing and required domestic hydropower manufacturing capabilities and workforce.

This report summarizes WPTO’s efforts in these focus areas and conducts a detailed gap analysis of the domestic hydropower supply chain. Specific, actionable recommendations are provided to address identified gaps.

Supply Chain Overview

The hydropower supply chain is divided into three sectors: upstream, midstream, and downstream. The analysis focuses on the yellow and orange areas, which indicate limited domestic capacity.

• Upstream Supply Chain: Includes raw material extraction, concentration, and processing into engineered materials. The United States has strong iron mining and steel production capabilities but lacks mining of trace metals like manganese and imports more than 40% of its copper. There are only two domestic facilities with forging capabilities for large hydropower shafts (50–75 tons) and a single domestic foundry capable of casting large turbine runners (greater than 10 tons).

• Midstream Supply Chain: Comprises the manufacture and assembly of hydropower components such as hydrogenerators and turbines. Some U.S. companies manufacture components, but international competition is intense, making it difficult to acquire components for 100-MW or larger systems.

Key Gaps Identified

Five major gaps in the domestic hydropower supply chain have been identified:

1. Unpredictable and Variable Demand Signals: Hydropower systems have exceptionally long lives (30–50 years), leading to unpredictable replacement and refurbishment schedules.
2. Limited or Nonexistent Domestic Suppliers:
   • Single domestic facility for windings >100 MW for large hydrogenerators.
   • Single domestic facility for large forgings (50–75 tons) for large hydropower shafts.
   • Single domestic foundry with casting capabilities >10 tons for large turbine runners.
   • Single domestic facility for <20-MW hydrogenerator manufacture.
   • No domestic facilities for >20-MW hydrogenerator manufacture.
   • Single domestic supplier of grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) for U.S. transformer manufacturers.
   • Two domestic suppliers of non-oriented electrical steel (NOES) for U.S. hydrogenerator manufacturers.
3. Federal Contracting Procedures and Domestic Content Laws: Procurement regulations and practices, such as bonding requirements, precontract design work, all-inclusive contracts, and focusing on initial capital outlay rather than total project life cycle cost, inhibit the development of the domestic supply chain. The Buy American Act (BAA) and Build America, Buy America Act (BABA) specify domestic content for federal purchases and purchases using federal funds.
4. Foreign Competition, Foreign Subsidies, and Ineffective Trade Policies: Companies noted inequitable competition from foreign companies and ineffective trade policies. Other countries subsidize their steel industries, and China develops “pods” of manufacturing capability to shorten the supply chain and make it more cost-effective.
5. Shortage of Skilled Workers: Hydropower manufacturing and upstream support industries face a significant shortage of workers with the necessary expertise.

Recommendations

To address these gaps, specific recommendations include:

• Enhancing domestic manufacturing capabilities and fostering a skilled workforce.
• Developing policies and incentives to support domestic content.
• Addressing federal contracting procedures to better support the domestic supply chain.
• Mitigating foreign competition and trade barriers through effective trade policies.

By addressing these gaps, the domestic hydropower supply chain can be strengthened, promoting sustainable and resilient energy solutions.