In Odesa’s Shadows: What Is Russia’s Strategy in Moldova?
Summary
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia has continued to view Moldova as a potential threat to its interests. Despite Moldova's pro-European stance, Russia has employed various strategies to undermine its progress towards Euro-Atlantic integration.
Threats, Blackmail, and Proxies
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Initial Threats and Saber-Rattling: In early 2022, Russia issued threats and warnings about Moldova potentially joining the war, using incidents like drone attacks in Transnistria to escalate tensions. However, these plans did not materialize as the Russian army remained focused on Ukraine.
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Energy Blackmail: In October 2022, Russia’s Gazprom reduced gas deliveries to Moldova by one-third, citing payment delays. This move exacerbated economic challenges, especially as Moldova was already grappling with the influx of Ukrainian refugees and the war’s disruptions.
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Political Pressure: Following the energy cut-off, pro-Russian politicians in Moldova held regular anti-government rallies in Chișinău. These protests were fueled by rising gas prices, but their effectiveness was limited, and they gradually declined by mid-2023.
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New Pro-Russian Leader: In early 2024, Ilan Shor, a fugitive Moldovan oligarch, emerged as a key player in the pro-Russian camp. Shor, who had previously had little affinity for Russia, now claims Russian citizenship and has been working to discredit Moldova’s pro-European leadership.
Key Data Points
- Gas Delivery Cut: Reduction in daily gas deliveries by one-third in October 2022.
- Inflation: Spike to 30% in 2022 due to increased gas prices.
- Pro-Russian Rally Impact: Regular anti-government rallies in Chișinău, though largely ineffective.
- Shor’s Rise: Emergence of Ilan Shor as a key pro-Russian figure, with his proxy Evghenia Guțul winning the Gagauzia leadership.
Conclusion
Despite initial threats and attempts at energy blackmail, Russia has not fully succeeded in derailing Moldova’s pro-European trajectory. Instead, Russia continues to use political and economic pressure to maintain Moldova within its sphere of influence, leveraging local proxies and manipulating internal dynamics.
