Policy Scenarios for Eliminating Plastic Pollution by 2040

Policy Scenarios for Eliminating Plastic Pollution by 2040

Overview

This report, Policy Scenarios for Eliminating Plastic Pollution by 2040, aims to assist negotiations for an international legally-binding instrument on plastic pollution. It is published under the responsibility of the OECD and has been produced with financial support from the United Kingdom and the European Union.

Key Findings and Analysis

Since 2000, plastics production, use, and waste have more than doubled, with significant amounts of plastic leaking into the environment annually. Business-as-usual practices are unsustainable given the rapid increase in plastic flows and their environmental impacts. The report covers a set of ten policy instruments across various stages of the plastics lifecycle, differing in terms of policy ambition and geographical coverage.

Policy Scenarios

The report presents five policy scenarios:

1. Baseline Scenario: Represents current policies and trends.
2. Advanced Economies Only: Geographically limited to advanced economies.
3. Global Coverage: Applies globally.
4. Broad Lifecycle Scope: Covers policies along the entire lifecycle.
5. Downstream Policies Only: Focuses on downstream policies only.

Each scenario includes ten policy instruments grouped into four policy pillars:

1. Curb Plastics Production and Demand
2. Design for Circularity
3. Enhance Recycling
4. Close Leakage Pathways

Environmental and Economic Impacts

• Environmental Benefits: Reducing plastic pollution can lead to significant environmental benefits, including improved air and water quality.
• Economic Costs: Implementing ambitious policies can result in higher initial costs but can also lead to long-term economic benefits through reduced waste management and environmental cleanup expenses.

Methodology

The report uses state-of-the-art environment-economy modeling to provide detailed sectoral and regional projections of the plastics lifecycle, including different polymers and applications, waste generation and treatment, and related leakage to aquatic and terrestrial environments.

Conclusion

Achieving the goal of eliminating plastic pollution requires ambitious action by all countries, with strong international cooperation and resource mobilization to overcome technical, economic, and governance challenges. The findings of this report aim to serve as a reference for negotiators and policymakers as they develop the treaty and consider new policies to end plastic pollution.

Acknowledgments

The report was prepared by Rob Dellink and Elena Buzzi under the overall supervision of Shardul Agrawala, with contributions from Peter Börkey and Ruben Bibas.