U.S. Support for Democratic Openings in Conflict-Affected Countries: Lessons From Ethiopia and Sudan

U.S. Support for Democratic Openings in Conflict-Affected Countries: Lessons From Ethiopia and Sudan

Summary

Ethiopia and Sudan experienced historic democratic openings in 2018 and 2019, respectively. These openings presented rare opportunities for the U.S. government to support democratization and deepen relations with two of the largest states in the Horn of Africa. However, despite these opportunities, the openings ultimately failed to lead to democratic consolidation, and both countries descended into civil wars. The U.S. government missed several opportunities to support peaceful democratic change and exacerbated conflict drivers through exclusionary and short-sighted policies. Emerging middle powers with authoritarian governments, such as the United Arab Emirates, successfully expanded their influence in Ethiopia and Sudan.

Given the global democratic recession, the U.S. must improve its approach to supporting democratic openings. The paper identifies four key lessons:

1. Align Policy to the Degree of High-Level U.S. Commitment: Democratic openings require timely, flexible, and sustained engagement. High-level U.S. policymakers' commitment to democratization is crucial for formulating an aligned strategy. Inconsistent U.S. support can lead to flawed and harmful policies, missed opportunities, and reputational risks. Washington should upgrade its commitment to democracy and set realistic goals if it chooses not to.

2. Factor in the Role of Emerging Powers: U.S. policymakers should consider the increasingly influential interests of external actors and encourage them to support democratization. If the U.S. chooses not to encourage restraint by emerging powers, officials should acknowledge this and calibrate their commitments to democratic reformers to avoid contradictory policies.

3. Recognize Underlying Structural Factors: U.S. strategy should be grounded in an analysis of the country's structural factors that predate the democratic opening and how they evolve during the transition. Ignoring these factors can lead to unrealistic expectations, misinterpretations of stakeholder decisions, and policies that are irrelevant or harmful.

4. Prioritize Inclusivity: Policies and programming in democratic openings should prioritize inclusivity. Exclusion can drive violence and undermine sustainable change. The U.S. must elevate inclusion as a foundational principle to avoid doing harm.

Introduction

The U.S. faces a sharp imperative to support democratic openings in the face of a global democratic recession and challenges from autocratic powers. Supporting democratic openings is particularly challenging in fragile and conflict-affected states. Ethiopia and Sudan experienced historic democratic openings in 2018 and 2019, respectively. These openings presented opportunities for the U.S. to support democratic reforms and deepen relations with these countries. However, both countries eventually descended into civil wars, and the U.S. missed opportunities to support peaceful democratic change and exacerbated conflict drivers through exclusionary and short-sighted policies.

Emerging middle powers with authoritarian governments, such as the United Arab Emirates, successfully expanded their influence in Ethiopia and Sudan. Despite the limited scope of what the U.S. government could reasonably achieve, the U.S. missed opportunities to support peaceful democratic change and did harm by exacerbating conflict drivers.

Four Key Lessons

1. Align Policy to the Degree of High-Level U.S. Commitment

   • Democratic openings require timely, flexible, and sustained engagement.
   • High-level U.S. policymakers' commitment to democratization is crucial for formulating an aligned strategy.
   • Inconsistent U.S. support can lead to flawed and harmful policies, missed opportunities, and reputational risks.
   • Washington should upgrade its commitment to democracy and set realistic goals if it chooses not to.

2. Factor in the Role of Emerging Powers

   • U.S. policymakers should consider the increasingly influential interests of external actors.
   • Encourage these actors to support democratization or acknowledge and calibrate commitments to democratic reformers to avoid contradictory policies.

3. Recognize Underlying Structural Factors

   • Ground U.S. strategy in an analysis of the country's structural factors that predate the democratic opening.
   • Ignore these factors can lead to unrealistic expectations, misinterpretations of stakeholder decisions, and policies that are irrelevant or harmful.

4. Prioritize Inclusivity

   • Policies and programming in democratic openings should prioritize inclusivity.
   • Exclusion can drive violence and undermine sustainable change.
   • Elevate inclusion as a foundational principle to avoid doing harm.

These lessons are critical for future opportunities and should be prioritized given their downstream impact on other elements of the U.S. response in similar contexts.