人工智能对全球经济的承诺（英）

AI's Promise for the Global Economy

Overview

The post-pandemic global economy faces significant challenges, including slower growth, persistent inflation, limited progress on sustainability, and high borrowing costs that weigh on investment. Amidst these challenges, artificial intelligence (AI) emerges as a critical tool to mitigate supply-side constraints and drive productivity growth.

Key Points

1. Productivity Growth:

   • AI has the potential to reverse the downward trend in productivity and produce a major sustained surge.
   • Analysts predict meaningful impacts on labor productivity by the end of this decade.

2. Colliding Forces:

   • Three powerful forces are colliding: shocks (war, pandemics, climate change), interest rate fluctuations, and technological revolutions.
   • Technological transformations include the digital transformation, biomedical and life sciences, and sustainable energy technologies.

3. Technological Advancements:

   • Breakthroughs in AI have accelerated the digital transformation.
   • Advances like declining solar costs, advanced semiconductors, DNA sequencing, and freely available protein models are contributing to significant productivity gains.
   • Generative AI, with its human-like capabilities, can operate across multiple domains and improve productivity through machine-human collaboration.

4. Challenges and Policy Considerations:

   • Challenges include regulatory frameworks to prevent misuse and mitigate risks.
   • Overcoming automation bias and ensuring AI's accessibility to various sectors are crucial.
   • Effective competition policy and prioritizing retraining and new skill acquisition are necessary.
   • Policymakers need to focus on expanding accessibility while maintaining risk mitigation measures.

5. Global Implications:

   • Europe risks falling behind due to underfunding of basic research, lagging computing power, and fragmented capital markets.
   • China and India are expected to play significant roles in AI development and application.
   • Emerging markets will primarily consume advanced AI technology from the US and China for the next few years.

6. Long-Term Impact:

   • AI will drive large-scale structural changes and disruptions over the next few decades.
   • While some jobs may be lost, others will be created through automation and rapid productivity growth.

Conclusion

Despite the challenges, the potential gains from AI are substantial. Effective policies and strategic investments are essential to harness AI's full economic impact and ensure growth, inclusion, and sustainability in the global economy.