煤化工策略日报

煤化工策略日报Coal Chemical Futures Strategy Daily Report 能源化工团队 摘要 作者：夏聪聪从业资格证号：F3012139投资咨询证号：Z0012870联系方式：010-68578010 ●甲醇 【市场逻辑】成本端暂时企稳，甲醇供应相对平稳，需求跟进不佳，港口库存累积至高位。 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号成文时间：2024年09月25日星期三 【交易策略】情绪推动下，甲醇期货积极上探，由于基本面支撑不足，上涨持续性不强，2430-2450附近承压。 ●PVC 【市场逻辑】原料电石市场好转，成本端走高，PVC供应较为平稳，需求依旧不温不火，高库存压力犹存。 【交易策略】PVC期货暂时企稳，短期重心低位整理，持续拉涨缺乏基本面的驱动，上方压力关注5480-5500附近。 ●尿素 【市场逻辑】日产维持在高位，尿素供应偏宽松，企业库存大幅累积，而下游需求疲弱，基本面压力增加。 【交易策略】短期情绪扰动下，尿素期货出现跟涨，自身供需矛盾突出，上方缺乏驱动，短期或测试1800-1810一带压力。 ●烧碱 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 【市场逻辑】氯碱企业盈利情况尚可，烧碱供应较为充裕，企业库存压力增加，下游需求提升受限，供需关系偏宽松。 【交易策略】高位基差下，烧碱期货短期仍存在走高可能，激进者可考虑五日均线附近轻仓试多，上方空间关注2400-2430附近。 目录 第一部分品种策略观点...........................................................................................................................1第二部分期货行情回顾...........................................................................................................................1第三部分现货市场走势...........................................................................................................................2第四部分期现基差变动...........................................................................................................................4第五部分行业开工水平...........................................................................................................................6第六部分库存数据跟踪...........................................................................................................................7第七部分市场供需现状...........................................................................................................................9 图目录 图1：甲醇收盘价....................................................................................................................................................................................1图2：PVC收盘价......................................................................................................................................................................................1图3：尿素收盘价....................................................................................................................................................................................2图4：烧碱收盘价....................................................................................................................................................................................2图5：甲醇现货市场价...........................................................................................................................................................................2图6：电石法PVC市场价.........................................................................................................................................................................3图7：小颗粒尿素出厂均价..................................................................................................................................................................3图8：32%离子膜碱市场价.....................................................................................................................................................................4图9：甲醇基差.........................................................................................................................................................................................4图10：PVC基差.........................................................................................................................................................................................5图11：尿素基差......................................................................................................................................................................................5图12：烧碱基差......................................................................................................................................................................................5图13：甲醇开工率..................................................................................................................................................................................6图14：PVC开工率....................................................................................................................................................................................6图15：尿素开工率..................................................................................................................................................................................6图16：烧碱开工率..................................................................................................................................................................................7图17：甲醇港口库存.............................................................................................................................................................................7图18：PVC社会库存................................................................................................................................................................................8图19：尿素企业库存.................................