南部非洲发展共同体投资气候计分卡

SADC Investment Climate Scorecard

Acknowledgements

The team acknowledges the strategic guidance and collaboration of the SADC Secretariat, including Sadwick Mtonakutha, Mario Lironel, Hamilton Thomas, and Lisivololona Razanajaholy. Key contributions were made by Mike Nyamazana and Thierry Mutombo. The project benefited from the core technical input of each SADC Member State’s focal points and independent short-term experts. The team is grateful for the partnership of Fernando Mistura and Stephen Thomsen of the OECD, whose FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index provided the methodological foundation for the Scorecard. Additional contributors include World Bank Group colleagues such as Soujanya Chodavarapu, Jakob Engel, Tania Ghossein, Ronald Rateiwa, Gracelin Christina Baskaran, Deo Ndikumana, Guido Rurangwa, Ivan Nimac, Aarushi Sinha, and Rachel Almeida. The team also thanks Madelynne Wager and Barbara Balaj for their support in designing and editing the report. Primary authors of the report were Priyanka Kher and Peter Kusek, with key contributions from Eduardo Antonio Jimenez Sandoval and Ramprakash Sethuramasubbu. The report was prepared under the World Bank project Support for SADC Scorecard on FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness, led by Ganesh Rasagam and Peter Kusek, with guidance from Douglas Pearce and Asya Akhlaque.

Executive Summary

Political stability, macroeconomic stability, the legal and regulatory environment, physical infrastructure, and export competitiveness are critical factors influencing foreign direct investment (FDI). Research indicates that improvements in the legal and regulatory environment are positively correlated with higher FDI inflows. Liberalizing FDI restrictions by about 10% can increase bilateral FDI in stocks by 2.1%, according to an augmented gravity model study by Mistura and Roulet (2019). Ensuring strong and enforceable investor rights is equally important to protect them from political risks, particularly from arbitrary and unpredictable regulatory actions. Weak legal protections can lead to divestments and canceled expansion plans, and investor-state disputes.

Recent crises, including the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have significantly impacted FDI and international production. Global FDI flows have stagnated since the 2008 financial crisis, with a further reduction of 40% in 2020 due to the pandemic. While FDI rebounded briefly in 2021, the long-term trend of stagnation persists. The latest data shows a decline of 12% in 2022 (UNCTAD, 2023).

The overlapping crises have reduced the availability of FDI to developing countries, leading to a steady decline in its relative importance as a percentage of GDP. Despite this, the need for FDI, especially in developing countries, has increased. The latest estimates suggest that the investment gap to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) exceeds $4 trillion annually, up from the $2.4 trillion estimate in 2015 (UNCTAD, 2023).

Geography, endowments, macroeconomic stability, and policy fundamentals remain primary determinants of a country's ability to attract FDI. Governments can play a crucial role in enhancing the investment climate through regulatory reforms and policy improvements.