Oil Market Report - 2008 Archives

Highlights

• Crude Oil Prices: NYMEX light sweet crude futures surpassed $100 per barrel in early January, driven by declining inventories, cold weather, and strong fundamentals. Supportive factors include tensions in Nigeria and the Middle East, as well as fund positioning.

• OECD Oil Stocks: Total OECD oil industry stocks decreased by 38.1 million barrels in November, compared to a year-over-year decline of 123.8 million barrels. This resulted in a stock level below the five-year average, reducing forward cover to 51 days. Preliminary December data for the US, Japan, and EU-16 showed an additional draw of 30.7 million barrels.

• World Oil Supply: Average world oil supply in December was 87.0 million barrels per day (mb/d), up by 870,000 barrels per day (kb/d) from November due to increases in OPEC-10, North America, the FSU, Brazil, and China. Fourth-quarter (4Q) supply was more than 1.0 million barrels per day (mb/d) higher than a year earlier, maintaining or exceeding levels seen in the previous three quarters.

• OPEC Crude Supply: OPEC crude supply increased by 825,000 barrels per day (kb/d) to 32.0 million barrels per day (mb/d) in December, following the addition of 500,000 barrels per day (kb/d) from Ecuador and 325,000 barrels per day (kb/d) from restored UAE production and higher Iranian exports. Nigerian supply remained stable at around 2.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), despite threats of further rebel attacks. Effective OPEC spare capacity fell to 2.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), with 80% held by Saudi Arabia.

• 2007 World Oil Demand: World oil demand for 2007 has been revised upward by 150,000 barrels per day (kb/d) to 85.8 million barrels per day (mb/d), reflecting stronger-than-expected deliveries in Asia and the Middle East and colder weather in the OECD. For 2008, demand remains virtually unchanged at 87.8 million barrels per day (mb/d).

• Downside Risks: Downside risks to US and global GDP have increased but remain outside the consensus and institutional forecasts.

• Global Refinery Throughput: December global refinery throughput was estimated to fall just short of last August's peak. January throughputs are expected to remain high at 75.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), up 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) from the previous year, before seasonal maintenance begins in February.

Notes

• The paper version of the Oil Market Report will cease production in January 2009, while existing paper subscriptions will continue to be honored. Electronic subscriptions or renewals will be required moving forward.
• A project to enhance the website and electronic services is underway, with plans to simplify the subscription process and integrate the OMR subscription service more closely with the IEA’s Online Bookshop, emphasizing online payment and immediate fulfillment. Subscription periods will shift to calendar years, and renewals will be offered on a pro-rata basis.