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Oil Market Report - 2016 Archives

AI智能总结

Global Demand Growth: In the fourth quarter of 2015, global oil demand growth dropped to a one-year low of 1.0 million barrels per day (mb/d), from a near five-year high of 2.1 mb/d in the third quarter of 2015. For 2016, demand growth is expected to moderate to 1.2 mb/d.
Warmer Early-Winter Weather: Mild temperatures in Japan, Europe, and the U.S. suppressed oil demand in the early part of winter.
Non-OECD Demand: Demand in non-OECD countries experienced a significant drop, particularly in China and Brazil.

OPEC Crude Output: OPEC crude output eased by 90,000 barrels per day (kb/d) in December to 32.28 million barrels per day (mb/d). Iran, now relieved of sanctions, plans to boost output by 500 kb/d immediately, with our assessment indicating that around 300 kb/d of additional crude could enter the market by the end of the first quarter of 2016.
Non-OECD Supply: Non-OPEC production saw a decline, with lower production levels for the first time since September 2012.

Inventory Build: Global oil inventories increased by approximately 1 billion barrels in 2014-2015. This trend is expected to continue in 2016, with a projected build of 285 million barrels.
Floating Storage: With significant capacity expansions in 2016, the storage infrastructure is likely to face pressure, potentially making floating storage profitable.

Fourth Quarter 2015: Global refinery runs averaged 79.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), down 0.3 mb/d compared to the previous month's estimate. Lower throughput in Other Asia and a high maintenance schedule in October contributed to this decline.
Margins: Refinery margins weakened in December, particularly in middle distillate cracks, which fell and overwhelmed the resilience of gasoline and naphtha.

Market Overview: The market remains volatile, with futures markets showing mixed signals. Spot crude oil prices have fallen significantly, while spot product prices have shown varying trends.