Coal Market Report: Analysis and Forecasts to 2023
Executive Summary
- Recent Trends in Demand and Supply:
- Highlights:
- Demand: Global coal consumption continues to rise, driven by Asia, particularly South and Southeast Asia.
- Supply: Supply remains stable but faces challenges due to aging infrastructure and increasing environmental concerns.
- Key Data:
- Asia accounts for approximately 1,400 gigawatts of coal-fired power plants with an average age of 11 years.
- Existing infrastructure is expected to remain relevant for the next 40 years, contributing to ongoing carbon emissions.
Recent Trends in Demand and Supply
- Highlights:
- Demand: Coal demand is forecasted to increase in the short term, driven by emerging economies in Asia.
- Supply: Supply stability is maintained, but aging infrastructure poses challenges.
- Key Data:
- Asia: 1,400 gigawatts of coal-fired power plants with an average age of 11 years.
- Future Outlook: Coal will continue to be the second-largest source of primary energy and the largest source of electricity for several years.
Recent Trends in International Coal Trade
- Highlights:
- Market Volumes and Trade Flows: International coal trade volumes are steady but face challenges due to geopolitical tensions and environmental regulations.
- Regional Analysis: Regional dynamics vary significantly, with Asia being the largest importer and exporter.
- Prices: Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand, geopolitical factors, and environmental policies.
Conclusion
- Key Points:
- The role of coal in the global energy mix remains significant but is increasingly scrutinized due to environmental concerns.
- Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) technology is seen as crucial for mitigating the environmental impact of coal.
- The IEA is leading efforts to promote CCUS alongside other countries to ensure a sustainable transition.
- Policy integration with innovative technologies is essential to address long-term climate goals and health impacts of air pollution.
Acknowledgments
- Contributors: The report was prepared by the Gas, Coal, and Power Markets Division (GCP) of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Key contributors include Carlos Fernández Alvarez, Max Schönfisch, Simon Schulte, and Keisuke Sadamori. Additional contributions were provided by various IEA colleagues and external experts.
This summary captures the key points and data from the report, focusing on the current state of coal demand, supply, and trade, as well as the role of CCUS technology in addressing environmental concerns.
