[IEA]：Oil 2020 - 发现报告

Coronavirus Clouds Oil Outlook: The coronavirus pandemic has significantly impacted global oil demand.
Major Challenges: The market faces significant challenges due to economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
Oil and Clean Energy Transitions: The transition towards cleaner energy sources is ongoing, with notable impacts on oil demand.

Highlights:
- Global Oil Demand by Product: Overall demand varies across different types of oil products.
- Economic Outlook: The economic outlook remains weak and uncertain.
- Regional Demand: Regional variations in oil demand are pronounced, with notable growth in Asia.
- Plastics' Impact: The plastics sector is increasingly affecting oil demand through recycling, single-use bans, and bioplastics.
- Transport in Transition: The shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) and improved fuel efficiency is reshaping transportation demand.
Key Data:
- India and China Car Sales: Significant growth in car sales in these countries.
- Chinese and Indian Oil Demand Growth: Rapid growth in oil demand in both countries.
- Non-OECD Oil Demand Growth: Strong growth in non-OECD countries.
- US Oil Demand Growth: Declining demand due to increased efficiency and alternative fuels.
- Oil Demand Replaced by Recycling, Bans, and Bioplastics: Increasing trend as countries implement bans and shift towards recycling.

Highlights:
- Global Overview: Global oil supply remains robust, with OPEC and non-OPEC countries contributing significantly.
- OPEC Crude Oil Capacity: OPEC's crude oil capacity is expected to grow.
- Non-OPEC Oil Supply: Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase, driven by new projects and investments.
Key Data:
- Global Oil Capacity Growth (2019-2025): Significant growth in oil production capacity.
- Rising Demand for OPEC Crude: Higher demand for OPEC crude allowing increased production in the Middle East.
- Capital Spending: Increased capital spending in the oil and gas upstream sector.
- Majors' Reserves Life: Extended reserves life for major oil companies.
- Change in Effective OPEC Crude Capacity: Changes in effective OPEC crude capacity over the next few years.
- Iraq and UAE Production: Significant production in Iraq and the UAE.
- Iran's Crude Oil Production: Declining production in Iran due to sanctions.

Highlights:
- Global Overview: Global refining and trade trends are analyzed.
- Regional Outlook: Regional differences in refining and trade are noted.
- Crude and Products Trade: Detailed analysis of crude and products trade.
Key Data:
- Cumulative Feedstock Demand Increase: Increase in feedstock demand from identified projects.
- Historical and Forecast Plastic Demand and GDP Growth: Correlation between plastic demand and GDP growth.
- Plastic Collection Rate for Mechanical Recycling: Increasing collection rates for mechanical recycling.
- Fuel Efficiency of Gasoline Cars: Improved fuel efficiency in the US and EU.
- Electric Vehicle Fleet: Growing electric vehicle fleet globally.
- Chinese Electric Bus Fleet: Rapid expansion of the electric bus fleet in China.
- Cumulative Electric Car Sales: Significant growth in cumulative electric car sales.
- Car Registrations in Europe: Shift in fuel preferences among car registrations.

Figure 1.1: LPG/ethane, naphtha demand growth (year-over-year).
Figure 1.2: Gasoline demand growth by country (year-over-year).
Figure 1.3: Middle distillates demand growth.
Figure 1.4: Bunker demand growth.
Figure 1.5: India, China car sales.
Figure 1.6: Chinese oil demand growth by product (year-over-year).
Figure 1.7: Indian oil demand growth by product.
Figure 1.8: Non-OECD oil demand growth.
Figure 1.9: US oil demand growth by product.
Figure 1.10: Oil demand replaced by recycling, single-use bans, and bioplastics.
Figure 1.11: Oil demand growth from the plastics sector, petrochemical capacity additions.
Figure 1.12: Feedstock demand increase from identified projects (cumulative, kb/d).
Figure 1.13: Historical and forecast plastic demand, GDP growth.
Figure 1.14: Plastic, PET collection rate for mechanical recycling.
**Figure 1

Oil 2020