Gas Market Report, Q4-2022
AI智能总结Gas Market Report Q4 2022
Global Gas Security Review 2022
Security of Supply in Times of Crisis
- Current Gas Crisis: The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022 has led to significant supply disruptions, causing extreme natural gas price levels and volatility.
- Market Tensions: Russia's steep reduction in pipeline deliveries to Europe has resulted in heightened market tensions and demand destruction in alternative sources of supply.
- European Union: European buyers have significantly increased their LNG procurement, leading to market tightening and demand destruction across various importing regions.
European Union's Security of Supply
- Regulatory Framework: The EU's security of supply regulation identifies three stages of gas crisis.
- Current Status: By the end of Q3 2022, 11 EU member states had issued early warning notices, and Germany declared an alert level under its gas emergency plan.
- Preparations for Winter: EU gas inventory levels stood at 87% of their working storage capacity as of 26 September 2022.
- Key Factors: Maintaining storage at adequate levels for the second half of the heating season will be crucial for ensuring gas supply security.
- Challenges: The deliverability of underground storage sites starts to decline when storage levels fall below 50% of working capacity.
- Demand Savings and LNG Imports: Gas demand savings and increased LNG imports will be essential to maintain gas storage at adequate levels until the end of the 2022/23 heating season.
Other Regions
- Asia Pacific: High gas prices have eroded demand across the region, with demand response varying widely among major importers.
- LNG Market: The global LNG market is experiencing tightness, leading to shifting trade patterns and reduced FSRU (Floating Storage and Regasification Unit) projects in South and Southeast Asia.
- Africa and Mediterranean: Europe's diversification of supply is triggering new developments in Africa and the Mediterranean, contributing to the continent's natural gas export capacity and deliverability.
- Contracting Activity: Contracting activity has rebounded strongly since 2021 amid high and volatile spot prices, with the Asia Pacific region remaining the dominant driver of LNG contracting globally.
Key Data Points
- Gas Demand Growth: Industrial sector demand, which strongly recovered in early 2021, is being severely affected by tight supply and spiralling spot prices.
- US Gas Consumption: US gas consumption was up by over 4% year-over-year (y-o-y) in the first eight months of 2022.
- South America: Expected to see negative gas consumption growth in 2022.
Overall, the report highlights the critical need for enhanced security of supply and market resilience in the face of ongoing supply disruptions and high gas prices.
