Credible pathways to 1.5°C

Credible Pathways to 1.5°C: Four Pillars for Action in the 2020s

Introduction

• Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions: Rose by 0.9% in 2022, reaching 36.8 billion tonnes (Gt).
• Land-Use Related CO2 Emissions: Remained around 6 Gt.
• Energy-Related Methane Emissions: Increased but stayed below 2019's record levels.

Key Data Points

• Projected Warming:
  • Current policy settings: ~2.5°C by 2100.
  • With full implementation of NDCs and net zero pledges: ~1.7°C by 2100.
• Renewable Energy Growth:
  • Need to triple capacity additions from 2022 levels to around 1,200 GW annually by 2030.
  • Electric car market share: 60% by 2030.
  • Zero-emissions medium and heavy freight trucks: 35% market share by 2030.
• Deforestation Reduction:
  • Target: Net-zero by 2030 (aligned with The Glasgow Leaders' Declaration on Forests and Land Use).

Four Pillars for Action

1. Energy Sector

   • Decarbonization: Accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources.
   • Energy Efficiency and Electrification: Increase the share of renewables in electricity generation to 90% of new generation capacity.
   • Electric Vehicles: Aim for a 60% market share by 2030.
   • Zero-Emissions Freight: Target a 35% market share for zero-emission medium and heavy trucks by 2030.

2. Land-Use Sector

   • Deforestation: Reduce deforestation to net-zero by 2030.
   • Mitigation Actions: Additional measures in the land-use sector to reduce CO2 emissions.

3. Non-CO2 Emissions

   • Methane and Short-Lived Climate Pollutants: Strong action on methane and other short-lived climate pollutants to reduce peak warming.
   • Commitments: Fulfilling pledges like the Kigali Amendment on HFCs and the Global Methane Pledge.

4. Carbon Management Technologies

   • Carbon Capture and Storage: Scale up projects to capture around 1.2 Gt CO2 by 2030.
   • Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Removal: Implement projects to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.

Summary

• Critical Areas for Action: Focus on near-term emissions reductions, smooth transitions, and strong international cooperation.
• Immediate and Steep Emissions Reductions: Minimize the magnitude and duration of a temperature overshoot above 1.5°C.
• Smooth Transition: Through coordinated policies and incentives.
• Global Contributions: Especially from advanced and major economies, and international collaboration to support emerging market and developing economies.

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Figure 1: Energy Sector CO2 Emissions by Scenario, 2010-2050, and Temperature Outcomes

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Note: Data and figures are based on the International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook 2022.