Critical Minerals Market Review 2023

Critical Minerals Market Review 2023

Introduction

Critical minerals are essential for a range of clean energy technologies and have risen to prominence in recent years. The rapid growth in demand for these minerals offers new opportunities but also introduces significant risks related to volatile prices, supply chain bottlenecks, and geopolitical concerns. To address these challenges, various jurisdictions are implementing new policies to enhance the diversity and reliability of critical mineral supplies.

Executive Summary

Record deployment of clean energy technologies, such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and batteries, is driving unprecedented growth in the critical minerals market. Electric car sales increased by 60% in 2022, surpassing 10 million units. Energy storage systems experienced even more rapid growth, with capacity additions doubling in 2022. Solar PV installations continue to break records, and wind power is poised for renewed growth after two subdued years. This surge in demand has led to a significant increase in the demand for critical minerals. From 2017 to 2022, demand from the energy sector tripled for lithium, increased by 70% for cobalt, and rose by 40% for nickel. In 2022, clean energy applications accounted for 56% of lithium demand, 40% of cobalt demand, and 16% of nickel demand, compared to 30%, 17%, and 6% respectively five years earlier.

Driven by rising demand and high prices, the market size of key energy transition minerals doubled over the past five years, reaching USD 320 billion in 2022. This contrasts with the modest growth of bulk materials like zinc and lead. Energy transition minerals, once a minor segment of the market, are now moving to center stage in the mining and metals industry, bringing new revenue opportunities and job creation, and helping to diversify coal-dependent economies.

The affordability and speed of energy transitions will be heavily influenced by the availability of critical mineral supplies. Many critical minerals experienced significant price increases in 2021 and early 2022, with lithium and nickel showing particularly high volatility. Most prices began to moderate in the latter half of 2022 and into 2023 but remain well above historical averages. Higher or volatile mineral prices in 2021 and 2022 underscore the importance of material prices in the costs of transforming energy systems.

Despite recent setbacks, the prices of all clean energy technologies today are significantly lower than a decade ago. Countries are seeking to diversify mineral supplies through a wave of new policies, recognizing the need for adequate and sustainable mineral supplies.

Key Market Developments

• Electric Car Sales: Increased by 60% in 2022, surpassing 10 million units.
• Energy Storage Systems: Capacity additions doubled in 2022.
• Solar PV Installations: Continuously breaking records.
• Wind Power: Resuming its upward trajectory after two subdued years.

Battery Sector Developments

• Electric Car Demand: Driving significant growth in battery minerals.
• Energy Storage: Experiencing rapid expansion.

Key Trends by Individual Commodity

• Lithium: Demand tripled from 2017 to 2022, with clean energy applications accounting for 56% of total demand.
• Cobalt: Demand increased by 70%, with clean energy applications accounting for 40% of total demand.
• Nickel: Demand rose by 40%, with clean energy applications accounting for 16% of total demand.
• Other Minerals: Aluminum, manganese, platinum group metals, and uranium are also discussed where relevant.

Implications

• Affordability and Speed of Energy Transitions: Heavily influenced by the availability of critical mineral supplies.
• Price Volatility: Significant price increases in 2021 and early 2022, with moderation in 2022 and 2023.
• Diversification of Supplies: Growing recognition of the need for diversified and sustainable mineral supplies.

Online Tool: Critical Minerals Data Explorer

• Interactive Access: Users can explore the latest IEA projections interactively.
• Regular Updates: Projections for critical minerals demand and supply are regularly updated based on the latest policy and technology trends.

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the critical minerals market, focusing on the latest trends, developments, and implications for policy and industry stakeholders. Future analysis will provide detailed demand and supply projections for key materials and in-depth discussions on key issues.