Thailand’s Clean Electricity Transition
Executive Summary
Decarbonizing Thailand's Power System
During the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) in 2021, Thailand committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 and net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2065. The energy sector, accounting for 69% of total GHG emissions in 2018, is critical to these goals. Electricity currently makes up 35% of energy sector carbon emissions, and further electrification is essential for reducing emissions in other sectors such as industry, transport, and buildings.
Current Status and Challenges
In 2021, 66% of Thailand’s generation mix came from natural gas, 17% from coal, and only 12% from low-carbon sources. According to the current Power Development Plan (PDP 2018), emissions would exceed the targets by 44% in 2030 and 80% in 2037. The main reasons for this discrepancy are the expansion of coal and gas capacity and insufficient clean electricity expansion.
Modeling and Scenarios
To support an updated PDP, the International Energy Agency (IEA) modeled the Thai power system to 2037. Two scenarios were analyzed: the Base scenario based on PDP 2018 and the VRE Plus scenario, which involves accelerating the deployment of solar PV and wind energy.
Key Findings
- Emissions Reduction: In the VRE Plus scenario, an additional 32 GW of wind and solar capacity by 2030, and 42 GW by 2037, reduces power sector carbon emissions by 29% in 2030 and 41% in 2037 compared to the Base scenario.
- Renewable Energy Share: By 2030, the share of variable renewable energy (VRE) in generation reaches 28%, and by 2037, it increases to 40%.
These findings indicate that accelerated deployment of renewable energy can significantly contribute to Thailand’s climate targets.
Figures
Figure 1: CO2 Emissions from the Thai Power Sector
- Baseline Scenario: Shows a 12% increase in power sector carbon emissions from 2021 to 2037.
- VRE Plus Scenario: Demonstrates a significant reduction in emissions, with a 29% decrease in 2030 and a 41% decrease in 2037.
Figure 2: CO2 Emissions from the Thai Power Sector Under Baseline and VRE Plus Scenarios
- 2021: Base scenario shows emissions at 100 million tonnes of CO2.
- 2030: Base scenario shows emissions at 128 million tonnes, while VRE Plus shows 72 million tonnes.
- 2037: Base scenario shows emissions at 184 million tonnes, while VRE Plus shows 108 million tonnes.
These figures highlight the substantial impact of increased renewable energy deployment on reducing power sector emissions.
