World Energy Outlook 2023

INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY IEA associationcountries: The IEA examines thefull spectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gasand coal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement andmuch more. Throughits work, the IEAadvocates policiesthat will enhance thereliability, affordabilityand sustainability ofenergy in its31 member countries,13associationcountries andbeyond. IEA membercountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine Please note that thispublication is subject tospecific restrictions that limitits use and distribution. Theterms and conditions areavailable online atwww.iea.org/terms This publication and anymap included herein arewithout prejudice to thestatus of or sovereigntyover any territory, to thedelimitation of internationalfrontiers and boundaries andto the name of any territory,city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org In memory of Robert Priddle (1938-2023) Executive Director of the InternationalEnergy Agency from 1994 to 2002. Today, 50 years on from the oil shock that led to the founding of the International EnergyAgency (IEA), the world once again faces a moment of high geopolitical tensions anduncertainty for the energy sector. There are parallels between then and now, with oilsupplies in focus amid a crisis in the Middle East – but there are also key differences: theglobal energy system has changed considerably since the early 1970s and further changesare taking place rapidly before our eyes. One thing that hasn’t changed since the 1970s is the IEA’s commitment to its core mission ofsafeguarding energy security. As we have demonstrated throughout the global energy crisisthat erupted in February 2022, the IEA is ready to respond quickly and effectively to suddendisruptions in energy markets. At the same time, we continue to dedicate significant effortsto anticipating and addressing the challenges that are evolving and emerging across theentire global energy system. This is an area where the data and analysis of theWorld EnergyOutlook (WEO)are so valuable. With the insights of this newWEOin mind, I want to highlight some important differencesbetween where the energy sector was 50 years ago and where it is today. The 1973-74 crisiswas all about oil, but today’s pressures are coming from multiple areas. Alongside fragile oilmarkets, the world has seen an acute crisis in natural gas markets caused by Russia’s cuts tosupply, which had strong knock-on effects on electricity. At the same time, the world isdealing with an acute climate crisis, with increasingly visible effects of climate change causedby the use of fossil fuels, including the record-breaking heatwaves experienced around theworld this year. A crisis with multiple dimensions requires solutions that are similarly all-encompassing.Ultimately, what is required is not just to diversify away from a single energy commodity butto change the energy system itself, and to do so while maintaining the affordable and secureprovision of energy services. The growing impacts of global warming make this all the moreimportant, as an increasing amount of energy infrastructure that was built for a cooler,calmer climate is no longer reliable or resilient enough as temperatures rise and weatherevents become more extreme. In short, we have to transform the energy system both tostave off even more severe climate change and to cope with the climate change that isalready with us. A second difference between the 1970s and today is that we already have the clean energytechnologies for the job in hand. The 1973 oil shock was a major catalyst for change, drivinga huge push to scale up energy efficiency and nuclear power. But it still took many years toramp them up while some other key technologies like wind and solar were still emerging.Today, solar, wind, efficiency and electric cars are all well established and readily available –and their advantages are only being reinforced by turbulence among the traditionaltechnologies. We have the lasting solutions to today’s energy dilemmas at our disposal. The third difference is that clean energy transitions have real momentum at the moment. Inthe 1970s, many countries were going from a standing start as they scrambled to respond tothe oil shock. As we show in thisWEO, clean energy deployment is moving faster than manypeople realise. And it can and should go faster still for us to meet our shared energy andclimate goals. In addition, we have international processes and accords in place today, suchas the Paris Agreement, t