Energy Systems in 2035: A Vision of a Decentralized, Low-Carbon Future
Key Points:
- Decarbonization Progress: By 2035, the global energy system has significantly reduced carbon emissions, with emissions from energy supply declining by 57% since 1990. Low-carbon energy sources have grown from 19% of total power production in 2008 to 53% between April and June 2017.
System Evolution:
- Diverse Energy Sources: Heating methods have diversified, with a notable decrease in carbon emissions, aiming for a future where all new vehicles are electric.
- Smart Metering: Smart meters will be installed in every household and business within two years, enhancing energy management and bill reduction potential.
- Energy Efficiency: Emphasis on energy efficiency improvements as a sustainable method to reduce energy costs, backed by recent successes highlighted by the Committee on Climate Change.
Challenges and Opportunities:
- System Complexity: The evolving system requires a whole-system approach, addressing challenges in maintaining decarbonization, security, and affordability.
- New Roles and Dependencies: The transition introduces new roles, interactions, and dependencies, offering opportunities but posing challenges to overcome.
Key Trends:
- Diversification of Generation: A mix of energy solutions including nuclear, solar, storage, power-to-gas, waste-to-energy, and more, will be crucial.
- Decentralization and Microgrids: The energy system becomes more decentralized, with microgrids reducing reliance on the national grid while maintaining connectivity.
- Smart Solutions: Smart technologies, including IoT, blockchain, and cyber security, play pivotal roles in system optimization and security.
- Energy Efficiency Programs: A national program focusing on energy efficiency is identified as a key priority to aid vulnerable populations in managing energy use effectively.
Transition Pathway:
- Deployment Strategies: Some solutions require large-scale deployment and coordination, necessitating certainty and support.
- Regulatory Framework: The introduction of RIIO 3.0, a new regulatory framework, facilitates the transition, covering aspects of heat infrastructure and promoting innovation.
Summary:
By 2035, the global energy system transforms into a resilient, low-carbon economy characterized by a diverse array of energy sources, enhanced efficiency, and a growing emphasis on decentralization and microgrid solutions. Key to this transition is a focus on smart technologies, energy efficiency programs, and robust regulatory frameworks designed to ensure decarbonization, security, and affordability. The journey to this future involves overcoming significant challenges and embracing new roles and interactions within the energy sector.
