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Assessing the regional demand for geological hydrogen storage

基础化工2024-05-13奥雅纳（Arup）任***

AI智能总结

Executive Summary

Strategic Context

Decarbonization Imperatives: Hydrogen storage plays a pivotal role in the UK's decarbonization strategy, serving as a critical component for meeting the nation's Net Zero goal by 2050.
Market Challenges: Without intervention, the market for hydrogen storage may fail to meet the required scale and pace, jeopardizing the government's 2030 and 2035 targets.

Research Outcomes

Demand Modelling for the East Coast Cluster
- Methodology:
  - Assumptions: Based on forecasted demands from industry, heat, power generation, and transport sectors.
  - Approach: Daily temporal matching of hydrogen production and demand over an annual period.
  - Findings: The demand for hydrogen storage is directly linked to its usage across various sectors, with significant uncertainties in policy leading to delayed investments.
Capacity Modelling for the East Coast Cluster
- Focus: Assessment of underground storage potential, specifically salt caverns.
- Limitations: Challenges include the total workable capacity of salt caverns, their location relative to producers and users, and the time required for project development.
- Findings: Despite a promising start with existing and planned salt caverns, the UK faces significant barriers in delivering the required scale of hydrogen storage in time.

Market Barriers

Technical Limitations: Salt cavern storage technology has constraints regarding scale, location, and project development timelines.
Policy Uncertainty: Lacking clear directives on hydrogen use in sectors like heat and the role of hydrogen in decarbonizing the power system.

Interventions

Policy Actions Needed: Immediate policy interventions to clarify hydrogen's role in decarbonization strategies and accelerate project development timelines.

Conclusions and Next Steps

Risk of Failure: The market for hydrogen storage in the UK is at risk of failing to meet the required scale and pace, especially in the East Coast Cluster.
Case for Change: Urgent action is required to ensure sustainable and resilient hydrogen storage solutions are developed to support the UK's decarbonization efforts.

Key Takeaways

Critical Role of Hydrogen Storage: Hydrogen storage is essential for decarbonization, enabling flexibility in energy systems and supporting the transition to cleaner energy sources.
Market Challenges: The lack of clear policy direction and technological constraints pose significant risks to meeting the UK's decarbonization goals.
Geographical Focus: The East Coast Cluster is identified as a key area for hydrogen storage investment due to its geology but faces challenges in project scalability and timeline.
Immediate Policy Action Required: Urgent policy interventions are needed to clarify hydrogen's role and accelerate project development to mitigate the risk of market failure.

AssessingtheRegionalDemandforGeologicalHydrogenStorage BuildingaStrategicCaseforInvestmentintheEastCoastCluster February2024 Contents Section1: ExecutiveSummary 3 Section2: Introduction 11 Section3: StrategicContext 13 Section4: ResearchOutputs 17 DemandModellingfortheEastCoastCluster18 CapacityModellingfortheEastCoastCluster28 Section5:MarketBarriers37 Section6:Interventions41 Section7:ConclusionsandNextSteps46 AppendixA:HydrogenStorageDemandModellingfortheEastCoastCluster ExecutiveSummaryMethodologyIndustrySectorHeatSector PowerGenerationSector TransportSectorOverarchingAssumptionsResults SensitivityAnalysisConclusions AppendixB:GeologicalHydrogenStorageCapacityModellingfortheEastCoastCluster ExecutiveSummaryLiteratureReviewMethodologyAssumptions Limitations&OpportunitiesDetailedFindingsConclusions AppendixC:References 49 50 51 54 58 62 64 71 74 78 86 87 88 89 91 101 104 105 108 111 Section1: ExecutiveSummary HydrogenstorageisakeycomponentoftheUK’sdecarbonisationplans,asitunlockstheabilitytoholdthesignificantreservesneededtomeetgrowingenergydemandsthroughout anenergysystemtransition.Withoutgovernmentintervention,thehydrogenstoragemarketwill notbeabletodeliverthenecessarystorageatpacewithdemand,therebythreateningthedeliveryofthegovernment’s2030and2035goalsonthepathtoNetZeroby2050. Foralmosttwodecades,theUKhasbeenagloballeaderinclimateprotection,recentlymovingforwarditsalreadyambitiousgoalsbycommittingtoa78%reductioninemissionsby2035(from1990levels)asaninterimmilestonetowardsNetZeroby2050. Whilethedetailedroadmaptoachievetheselegallybindingcommitmentsisstillindevelopment,itiswidelyacceptedthatlowcarbonhydrogenwillplayacriticalroleinanyfuture decarbonisationenergysystem,helpingtobringdownemissionsinvitalUKindustrialsectorsandprovidingflexibleenergyforpower,heatandtransport. Whilethescaleofhydrogen’sroleisstilltobedetermined,analysisbythedepartmentforCarbonBudget6suggests250-460TWhofhydrogencouldbeneededin2050,makingup20-35%ofUKfinalenergyconsumption.[1] TheEastCoastisastrategicallyimportantareaforproduction.TodatetheUKhasannouncedover20GWofhydrogenproductionwith11.6GWpotentiallybeinglocatedinthe EastCoastCluster. Thecriticalityofhydrogenliesinitsabilitytobestoredatsignificantscaleandduration.Thismakesitaversatilereplacementforhigh-carbonfuelsusedtodayandallows ittounderpinanenergysystemcomprisedofotherenergysourceswithoutthesamecapability. ItiswidelyacknowledgedthatitwilltakeadiverseportfoliooftechnologiestoreachNetZero,diversificationbeingthe foundationtoastrong,secure,andresilientinvestmentstrategy. Hydrogenstorageisacriticalbuildingblockofthehydrogennetworkwithitsabilitytodeliverthescaleanddurationoflowcarbonhydrogendemandexpected. Itislikelythathydrogenstoragewillberequiredforthefollowingroles: •Providingcapacitytoallowhydrogenproducersandend-userstoreducesupplyrisksresultingfromdemandandproductionmismatch,particularlyforelectrolytichydrogen. •Supportingthedecarbonisationofthepowersystemby2035throughavoidingcurtailmentofrenewablesandsupportingdispatchablepowergenerationthroughhydrogen-fuelledpowerplants. •SupportingtheneedforstrategicstoragetounderpinaresilientandsecureenergysystemastheUKshiftstoenergyindependence. Settingthestrategiccontextforfurtherinvestmentincriticalstorageinfrastructure Thereareavarietyofestimatesofhydrogenstoragerequirementsinpublishedliterature,whicharerevisedandupdatedastheevidencebasegrowsanduncertaintyisremoved.Therequirementforstorageisintrinsicallylinkedtodemandforhydrogen,andtheultimateenduseofhydrogen.Theuncertaintyassociatedwiththedemandmixforhydrogenexplainsthelarge rangesforstoragerequirementsthatarereported. Atpresent,theonlyproventechnologyforstoringlargevolumesofpurehydrogeniswithinundergroundsaltcavernsformedthroughsolutionminingofsuitablegeology.TheUKcurrentlyhas0.025TWhofsaltcavernhydrogenstorage,withtwonotableprojectsindevelopment,namelyHyKeuperandAldbrough,thatwilladdafurther1TWhand0.5TWhstoragecapacity,respectively.WhilsttheUKisfortunatetohaveasignificantamountofsuitablegeologytosupportsaltcavernstoragedevelopment,thetechnologyhaslimitationsthatchallengeitsabilitytodeliverthescaleofhydrogenstorageatpacetomatchmodelleddemandrequirements. Beyondthechallengesof(1)totalworkablecapacityofthesaltconsideringsurfaceandsubsurfaceconstraintsand(2)the locationofsuitablesaltdepositsinrelationtotheproducersandend-users,themostsignificantobstacleisthetimerequiredtodevelopanddeliverlarge-scalesaltcavernprojects. Giventhebarrierstothedevelopmentoflarge-scalehydrogenstoragewithinsaltcaverns,furthercompoundedbyimmaturityofalternativetechnologies,itisconsideredbytheauthorsofthisreportthatthereisariskofmarketfailureassociatedwiththeabilityoftheUKtodeliverthenecessaryhydrogenstoragewithintherequiredtimeframes.Putsimply,withoutaction, ourassessmenthasindicatedthatwewillnotbeabletodevelopenoughstorageatpacewithdemand–thedelayinthedeliveryofthiscriticalinfrastructurecouldthreatenthegovernment’sambitiontohave10GWoflowcarbonproductioncapacity by2030,adecarbonisedpowersystemb

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