2024Q2财报分析：价稳量弱供给底，盈利磨砺待春回

价稳量弱供给底， 盈利磨砺待春回 ——2024Q2财报分析 分析师：包承超、邓宇林、周长民 2024年08月31日 证券研究报告 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 图：全A非金融油的盈利增速在8个季度的下行期后重新进入上行趋势，但仍在负增区间 图：净利润、开支、库存均位于历史底部位置 景气：收入持续回落，科技边际改善 ◥截至北京时间2024年8月30日22点00分，2024年全A中报披露率99%，我们根据此数据口径进行分析。 ◥净利润单季同比：二季度净利润同比继续下探，全A非金融油2024Q1及2024Q2单季同比为-5.79%和-8.04%。 ◥营收单季同比：二季度营收同比进一步回落，全A非金融油2024Q1及2024Q2单季同比为0.29%和-1.61%。 图：净利润单季同比增速图：营收单季同比增速 ◥盈利TTM同比：二季度净利润同比增速底部企稳，全A非金融油2024Q1及2024Q2的净利润同比增速分别为-3.42%和-2.68%。 ◥营收TTM同比：二季度营收同比增速小幅下探，全A非金融油2024Q1及2024Q2的营收同比增速分别为2.14%和0.69%。 图：净利润TTM同比增速图：营收TTM同比增速 ◥净利润分布：消费和TMT净利润占比扩大，周期制造净利润占比持续减少。具体而言，2024Q2周期板块、制造板块、消费板块、 TMT板块的净利润占比分别为43.8%、12.5%、28.3%、15.4%。 ◥营业收入分布：周期收入占比减少，TMT收入占比扩大，制造和消费收入占比基本稳定。具体而言，2024Q2周期板块、制造板块、消费板块、TMT板块的营收占比分别为54.1%、21.1%、11.9%、12.9%。 图：消费和TMT净利润占比扩大，周期制造净利润占比持续减少图：周期收入占比减少，TMT收入占比扩大 图：申万一级行业的净利润TTM同比增速 净利润TT M同比增速 2019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q2 (2 △变化 024Q2-2024Q1) 煤炭 5% 4% 2% -7% -12% -12% -4% 18% 42% 61% 78% 85% 98% 80% 52% 29% -14% -24% -27% -36% -33% 3% 石油石化 3% -26% -3% -46% -85% -22% -39% 142% 1125% 135% 160% 30% -2% 16% 10% -1% -2% -1% -2% 3% 13% 9% 基础化工 -19% -32% -82% -91% -86% -78% 249% 685% 1026% 802% 147% 94% 51% 17% -6% -26% -46% -47% -47% -40% -20% 20% 钢铁 -16% -36% -44% -45% -49% -28% -1% 46% 144% 149% 88% 34% -36% -73% -73% -84% -93% -44% -14% 27% 151% 124% 有色金属 -78% -78% -35% -52% -54% 2% 324% 925% 1226% 749% 138% 118% 96% 72% 64% 26% -6% -16% -26% -29% -14% 15% 建筑材料 25% 12% 15% 2% 5% 20% 27% 48% 51% 20% 6% -6% -22% -30% -46% -54% -55% -48% -32% -28% -40% -12% 建筑装饰 1% 4% 5% -4% 0% 1% 6% 26% 27% 19% -2% -9% -12% -8% 8% 8% 7% 3% 9% 5% 0% -5% 交通运输 -7% 0% 16% -28% -48% -56% -106% -72% 10% 68% 6062% 567% 92% 36% -46% -48% -29% 7% 72% 79% 36% -43% 电力设备 -38% -34% 11% -1% 14% 36% 75% 130% 104% 75% 39% 26% 49% 69% 91% 79% 46% 15% -18% -35% -51% -16% 工业制造 机械设备 -42% -46% 55% 7% 28% 56% 52% 124% 79% 52% 26% -3% -13% -17% -11% -4% 5% 10% 1% 1% -3% -4% 国防军工 -1% 8% 58% 41% 27% 46% 62% 46% 50% 28% 9% 10% 5% 5% -6% -11% -8% -9% -1% -3% -18% -15% 环保 -57% -56% -76% -85% -79% -57% 604% 806% 580% 325% -21% -31% -36% -35% -7% -2% 3% -3% -5% 5% 2% -3% 汽车 -41% -45% -41% -60% -45% -21% 21% 165% 123% 51% 15% -21% -30% -12% -2% 10% 43% 40% 48% 49% 37% -12% 家用电器 -19% -16% 27% 9% -2% 0% 5% 35% 48% 33% 9% -1% 0% 6% 9% 9% 9% 10% 14% 13% 9% -5% 轻工制造 -24% -23% 4% -2% 2% 4% -23% 10% 27% 17% 18% -19% -39% -37% -30% -35% -22% -8% 15% 35% 35% 0% 可选消费 纺织服饰 -43% -48% -46% -73% -85% -87% -38% 77% 238% 290% 73% 23% -7% -25% -42% -46% -32% -21% 67% 68% 49% -19% 社会服务 -42% -57% 16% -63% -131% -165% -227% -388% -192% -181% 4% -37% -220% -42% -46% 11% 60% 87% 237% 322% 534% 212% 美容护理 40% 28% 12% -10% -13% 0% 16% 34% 24% -13% -41% -43% -42% -34% -23% -11% -1% 37% 50% 39% 27% -13% 商贸零售 -27% -8% -15% -42% -38% -68% -52% 1% -9% -6% -186% -164% -182% -233% 52% 77% 87% 105% 900% 1174% -14% 农林牧渔 -21% 9% 441% 1212% 388% 300% 42% 11% -38% -106% -146% -186% -214% -944% 153% 144% 131% 116% -130% -110% -22% 89% 必选消费 食品饮料 20% 21% 14% 6% 9% 10% 17% 26% 20% 16% 10% 8% 9% 11% 12% 13% 13% 14% 17% 17% 17% 0% 医疗保健 医药生物 -15% -8% -8% -21% -6% 4% 23% 62% 49% 30% 56% 39% 25% 27% -6% -21% -24% -26% -20% -11% -8% 4% 银行 6% 6% 6% 6% -3% -6% 1% 0% 13% 19% 13% 14% 10% 8% 8% 6% 5% 3% 1% 1% 0% -1% 非银金融 15% 45% 66% 23% 0% -3% 0% 15% 33% 12% 8% -8% -12% -12% -22% 1% -16% -12% -7% -24% -4% 21% 电子 -34% -27% 5% 9% 22% 28% 53% 90% 100% 103% 70% 36% 5% -16% -30% -40% -43% -38% -33% -12% 12% 23% TMT 计算机 -16% -14% 13% -17% -25% -29% -16% 12% 7% 6% 0% -17% -20% -32% -48% -36% -31% -19% -11% -30% -26% 4% 传媒 -149% -153% -3085% -401% 63% 60% 97% 130% 307% 291% 1254% 319% 126% 8% -72% -63% -44% -31% 129% 98% 47% -51% 通信 -157% -124% -290% -209% 416% 406% 182% 189% 24% -2% -56% -54% 35% 33% 41% 16% 11% 8% 5% 5% 5% 0% 公用事业 公用事业 13% 22% 11% -3% 2% 11% 29% 52% 33% -17% -62% -72% -68% -41% 70% 107% 138% 119% 67% 60% 50% -9% 房地产 房地产 8% 6% 16% 5% 0% 0% -13% -8% -13% -23% -84% -88% -106% -117% -341% -425% -721% -1146% -36% -78% -323% 周期 金融业 周期：环比改善，但仍负增长 制造：负增长且 增速持续下降 可选消费：增速仍高，但边际下降 TMT： 逐渐改善 地产链：持续恶化 营业收入T TM同比增速 2019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q2 △变化 (2024Q2-2024Q1) 煤炭 11% 9% 8% 4% 2% 2% 0% 7% 13% 23% 34% 35% 35% 23% 8% 2% -7% -10% -11% -13% -14% 0% 石油石化 19% 11% 4% -3% -13% -18% -22% -17% -1% 15% 32% 38% 34% 28% 22% 14% 6% 2% -2% -1% 0% 2% 基础化工 8% 5% 1% -3% -2% -2% 2% 14% 21% 29% 34% 30% 28% 22% 14% 6% -3% -5% -6% -5% 0% 5% 钢铁 12% 7% 4% 0% -2% -2% 2% 14% 30% 42% 40% 29% 13% -2% -6% -9% -10% -6% -4% -4% -4% 1% 周期 有色金属 8% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 17% 26% 33% 36% 37% 33% 27% 21% 15% 8% 5% 6% 1% -1% 0% 1% 建筑材料 28% 23% 13% 3% 2% 23% 37% 57% 63% 23% 11% 0% -10% -7% -13% -12% -10% -7% -1% -5% -9% -4% 建筑装饰 15% 17% 18% 12% 13% 15% 13% 25% 24% 19% 17% 11% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 2% -4% 交通运输 13% 11% 12% 6% 5% 4% 6% 17% 30% 38% 38% 32% 19% 13% 8% 5% 3% 1% -2% -3% -5% -2% 电力设备 11% 12% 11% 6% 9% 11% 14% 26% 30% 33% 35