Summary
The paper "A Historical Evaluation of China's India Policy: Lessons for India-China Relations" by Vijay Gokhale evaluates China's approach to India over the last seven decades, considering its evolving stance within the broader context of the Great Power Triangle consisting of China, the Soviet Union/Russia, and the United States.
Key Phases of China's India Policy:
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1949-1965: Initially, China viewed the United States as its primary adversary. Its primary objective was to keep India neutral and avoid aligning with the US, aiming to maintain India's neutrality on matters concerning China. A secondary aim was to leverage India's influence in the developing world to counter US influence in Asia.
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1965-1989: The Sino-Soviet split and India's growing ties with the Soviet Union heightened China's security concerns. The policy focused on detaching India from the Soviet Union and engaging Pakistan to counterbalance India's influence.
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Post-Cold War (1991-2000s): With the collapse of the Soviet Union, China's concerns shifted towards the US's potential regime change efforts in communist states, including China itself. The strategy was to maintain India's non-alignment to reduce risks to China's security and minimize India's threat to its periphery.
Recent Developments and Future Implications:
- The paper highlights that the 2020 Galwan valley clash significantly altered India-China dynamics, with India adopting a more assertive stance against China's border provocations.
- It suggests that China might need to reassess its strategy, given the strategic clarity gained by India and the potential for an escalated response to its coercive actions.
- Recommendations for India include enhancing political transparency, pursuing higher-level risk management to prevent tensions from escalating, and finding common ground in discussions related to shared interests and concerns in the Indo-Pacific region.
Methodology:
The analysis draws primarily from official publications of Chinese leaders' speeches, memoirs of Chinese diplomats, and scholarly writings from Chinese think tanks. The focus is on understanding the structural drivers of China's India policy and their relevance in the contemporary context.
