Imamoglu, Erdogan i la (geo)política de les emocions

The geopolitical dynamics of emotions have been highlighted in the report through the case study of Istanbul's local elections. The book 'La geopolítica de les emocions' by Dominique Moïsi points out that feelings like fear, hope, and humiliation are unevenly distributed globally. The "Battle of Istanbul", specifically the repeated elections on June 23rd, has led to a renewed focus on emotions as they are crucial in understanding why elections were forced to be repeated and how Ekrem Imamoglu emerged as the 'white hope' of the opposition.

The sense of vulnerability was what led President Erdogan and his advisors to opt for the repeat election after a close result on March 31st, which gave the opposition control over the city. Losing power in a city that has politically validated Erdogan since 1994, where it accounts for a third of the country's wealth and secures lucrative public contracts, instilled a feeling of vulnerability. This isn't new; it dates back to the Gezi protests in 2013, losing the absolute majority in the 2015 elections, the failed coup attempt in 2016, and the narrow victory in the presidential referendum in 2017. It might seem counterintuitive, but when Erdogan accumulates more power, he feels the risk of losing it more and his certainty of preserving it decreases.

The report emphasizes the fear that Erdogan has towards his own citizens, the emergence of a leader capable of standing up to him, uniting all his critics, and attracting votes from traditional supporters. He is also concerned about the divisions within his own party, which have sparked rumors of splits, new parties, and returns of former glories. Fear isn't always a good advisor, and in this case, it hasn't been.

Humiliation was felt by many Turks when the electoral verdict of March 31st wasn't accepted. With massive participation in the elections, Imamoglu, Erdogan, and the (geo)politics of emotions, the significant value that citizens give to the right to vote became clear. Here, another emotion, pride, comes into play. The decision to repeat the elections in Istanbul was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Various sectors of society felt that their rights were being violated and that they weren't being governed for them. Corruption, purges, and Erdogan's paternalistic approach have come back to haunt him.

The key to these elections lies in the changes in voter turnout between the two coalitions. While the difference in votes between the two candidates didn't reach 14,000 in March, three months later, it had expanded to 800,000. In part, this is due to the mobilization of those who hadn't voted and the votes cast by small parties that withdrew their candidacies. However, there's something else. Evidence suggests that some who voted for Yildirim, the former prime minister and 'Erdoganist' candidate, decided to withdraw their support. This is something that would certainly have caught the attention of the party's central committee. But that's not all. If political bloc transfers occurred, perhaps it's time to reconsider the idea of a polarized Turkish society divided into irreconcilable halves.

Hope has become a beacon in Turkey. Facing fear, anger, or frustration, future mayor of Istanbul decided to base his campaign on hope. In the March elections, the opposition changed its mobilization strategy and adopted a detailed political communication campaign outlined in 'The Book of Radical Love'. Imamoglu followed suit. He chose a measured and conciliatory tone. He appeared as an inclusive politician capable of reaching the party's most liberal base, working-class voters, Kurdish voters who massively supported him, and even religious sectors.

Hope is scarce in Turkey now. Economic prospects aren't promising and could worsen if relations with the United States continue to be strained or tensions increase with its Middle Eastern neighbors. The war in Syria doesn't help either, with regime attacks against the Idlib region causing new refugee arrivals. Imamoglu or any other candidate could have chosen an opposing strategy: exploiting indignation and discontent. But he did something different. He sought affirmative votes, not against anyone. He offered a new narrative that has not only spread among Istanbul's citizens and the rest of the Turks but also among those who lost faith in Turkish democracy.

Turkey is moving at the rhythm of emotions. The combination of fear, humiliation, and hope explains the current moment and will continue to mark the steps from now on. As Erdogan's fear becomes more apparent, some may start to leave him. But beware, when someone feels injured and threatened, the responses can be more violent.

For the opposition, humiliation has turned into hope. But now it's time to meet expectations and make it hard. Many see Imamoglu as the only one capable of standing up to Erdogan. Speculating whether he will be his rival in presidential elections is inevitable. But for that, there's still a long way to go.