利比亚如何影响北非

The provided text discusses the geopolitical dynamics in Libya and its impact on North Africa, focusing particularly on the military actions between the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli and the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Marshal Khalifa Haftar, and the role of external actors such as Algeria, Egypt, and Turkey.

Main Events:

1. Military Offensives: In early 2019, Marshal Khalifa Haftar's LNA launched an offensive against the oasis of Sebha in southern Libya. Supported by strong backing from the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, Haftar's forces secured control over Sebha, a region rich in oil and gas resources, by the end of January. This move was seen as a useful "mopping up operation" to establish order in the lawless south.

2. Impact on GNA and UN: Initially, the GNA and the UN seemed unconcerned about Haftar's actions. However, by April 2019, the LNA controlled 80% of Libyan territory, which prompted concerns among countries supporting the GNA and the UN. Haftar's intervention was supposed to aid in the agreement reached in Abu Dhabi, aiming to reconcile with the Touareg tribes.

3. Algerian Re-Engagement: Algeria's re-entry into the regional diplomatic and security scene, advocating for resolving conflicts within the region, was welcomed in western Libya and Tripoli. Algeria sought to play a leading role in the Libyan political process, particularly in resolving conflicts and removing foreign mercenaries, especially those from Sudan.

4. Strategic Miscalculations: Algerian leaders underestimated the potential consequences of Haftar's attack on Tripoli. This was exacerbated by the concurrent demonstrations in Algeria that led to Abdelaziz Bouteflika's decision to renounce his presidential mandate. This event further destabilized the situation, leading to a prolonged war in Libya.

5. External Involvement: Turkey's decision to send troops to support the GNA in Tripoli has heightened tensions. The new Algerian president, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, and his chief of staff aim to reinvigorate Algerian diplomacy in North African affairs, emphasizing Algeria's role in maintaining regional security.

Key Impact Areas:

• Security Risks: The ongoing conflict in Libya poses significant security risks to neighboring countries, particularly Algeria and Tunisia, which share borders with Libya.
• Economic Interests: Control over oil and gas resources in Libya impacts the economic interests of regional powers, including Algeria, Egypt, and Turkey.
• Regional Diplomacy: Algeria's role in mediating conflicts and its efforts to reduce foreign influence in Libya highlights the importance of regional diplomacy in addressing the Libyan crisis.

This summary captures the central events and dynamics described in the text, focusing on the military actions, the role of external actors, and the broader implications for regional stability.