在欧罗巴 ？

CIDOB Opinion 798, May 2024

The increased rhetoric of war in Europe is primarily driven by the upcoming European elections and the need for increased defense spending amidst reduced US involvement in the conflict. This is exemplified by statements from French President Emmanuel Macron, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and former Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who all emphasize the risk of Russia's military escalation.

The situation in Ukraine has not justified such alarmist tones regarding direct warfare with a European Union or NATO country, even considering the lack of a $60 billion aid package from Congress. While Ukraine may face territorial losses, the Russian military's strategic position in Ukraine is weakening. The Russian forces have struggled to gain significant ground against Ukrainian resistance, as seen in the slow progress on taking back territories like Bajmut and controlling the Donbass region.

Russia's position is more vulnerable now than it was at the start of the invasion. Drones from Ukraine threaten key Russian cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, and Russian control over the Black Sea has diminished due to damaged naval fleets. Additionally, the EU's increased defense spending and NATO's expansion, particularly with Sweden and Finland joining, are counterbalancing Russian influence in its traditional sphere of influence.

The rhetoric is also fueled by the need to prepare for potential economic and military impacts of the ongoing conflict. With the US's reduced engagement, European leaders must consider how to finance the conflict effectively and ensure collective support for Ukraine, potentially through new financing methods and increased individual state contributions.

Moreover, the discourse around security tends to favor right-wing parties in Europe, which may capitalize on fears of war. However, there is a pushback from center-left leaders who seek to avoid unnecessary panic and emphasize their opposition to war. The concern about arms race and its escalating costs is significant; Russia spends approximately 6% of its GDP on defense, much lower than during the Cold War period when it reached 12-17%.

The escalating rhetoric and increased defense spending underscore the need for a coordinated approach to European security, emphasizing not only increased spending but also efficient allocation and consideration of non-military solutions to address the conflict in Ukraine.