人民币汇率周报：降息预期与特朗普交易升温下，汇率何去何从？

7 15 I2024 20111290 6CPI 104.2 7.26 7.215-7.285 Z0017101 1..........................................................................................1 1.1....................................................................................1 1.2..............................................................1 1.3.................................................................................4 1.3.1...................................................................................................4 1.3.2...................................................................................................5 1.3.3...................................................................................................5 2.................................................................................................6 2.1-........................................................................6 2.2.............................................................................6 2.2.1............................................................................................6 2.2.2............................................................................................7 2.2.3........................................................................................8 2.2.4........................................................................................9 2.3......................................................................................10 2.3.1.......................................................................10 2.3.2....................................................................10 3........................................................................................12 3.1.......................................................................12 3.2..................................................................................14 3.3................................................................15 .................................................................................................17 ........................................................................................................18 19 20 ............................................................................................................20 1.1.1 ..................................................................................................1 1.2.12024617621.2 1.2.2 1.2.3 .....................................................................2 6CPI / ......................................................................................................................3 2.1.1 ...............................................................................................6 2.2.1 ..........................................................6 2.2.2 ..............................................................6 2.2.3 ..........................................................7 2.2.4 ................................................................................7 2.2.5 % ..............................................................8 2.2.6 .....................................................................9 2.2.7 NDF USDCNH .........................................................................9 2.2.8 USDCNY 25Delta %..........................9 2.3.1 .............................................10 2.3.2 .......................................................................10 2.3.3 .............................................11 2.3.4 .......................................................................11 3.3.1 2024.7.15-7.19 ................................15 1 .................................17 2 % ..................................................................18 3 ...................................................19 4Shibor%19 5SOFR %.............................................................................19 6%.................................................................................20 7....................................................................................20 1. ( BIS 7.1289 7.1342 7.1286 7.1315 0.036% USDCNY7.2674 7.2759 7.2585 7.2585 -0.122% USDCNH7.2910 7.2918 7.2770 7.2770 -0.192% 160.7163 161.7375 157.9506 157.9506 -1.721% 1.0828 1.0902 1.0812 1.0902 0.684% 1.2807 1.2984 1.2784 1.2984 1.380% 104.8795 105.1224 104.1056 104.1056 -0.738% CFETS99.76 —— —— 99.24 -0.421% 105.84 —— —— 105.29 -0.520% 94.29 —— —— 93.94 -0.371% 1.1 202478712 71216:30 CFETSBISSDR 1.1.1 ) ( SDR iFinD ) 1.2 7.26 6CPI104.2 6 CPI 20249 2024 2-3 1.2.1202478 712 USDCNHUSDCNY Bloomberg 1.2.2 7.30 7.28 7.26 7.24 7.22 7.20 7.18 7.16 7.14 108.00 107.00 106.00 105.00 104.00 103.00 102.00 7.12 2024-03-152024-04-152024-05-152024-06-15 101.00 : iFinD / 1.2.3 6CPI Bloomberg 1.3 1.3.1 2% + + 6 2 4% Sentix 2024 6 2025 2% 4 6 7 7.215-7.285 1.3.2 1.3.3 2. - 2.1 712 26 7.1315 2.1.1 1 2 26 6998 535 -7507 21 RefinitivBloomberg 7050 792 -7821 2.2