美国动力电池供应链投资及其对电动车价格中长期影响分析

FEBRUARY2024 INVESTIGATINGTHEU.S.BATTERYSUPPLYCHAINANDITSIMPACTONELECTRICVEHICLECOSTSTHROUGH2032 ChangShen,PeterSlowik,AndrewBeach ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ThisworkisconductedwithgeneroussupportfromtheJoshuaandAnitaBekensteinCharitableFund,theEnergyFoundation,andtheHeising-SimmonsFoundation.WethankGeorgBiekerandEyalLiforinputonunderlyingdataandmethods.CriticalreviewsonanearlierversionofthisreportwereprovidedbyGeorgBieker,EyalLi,TeoLombardo,andStephanieSearle.Theirreviewdoesnotimplyanendorsement,andanyerrorsaretheauthors’own. Editor:AmySmorodin InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportation1500KStreetNW,Suite650 Washington,DC20005 communications@theicct.org|www.theicct.org|@TheICCT ©2024InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportation EXECUTIVESUMMARY Theglobalshifttowardzero-emissionvehiclesisrapidlyadvancing,andmanycountriesaresettingambitiousdecarbonizationtargets.Inthiscontext,theUnitedStates,throughtheU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency’s(EPA)recentstandardsproposal,aimstoleadglobaleffortstoreducelight-dutyvehiclepollution.However,apivotalresearchquestionarises:CantheUnitedStatesensureareliablesupplyofessentialmineralstoproduceaffordablebatteryelectricvehicles(BEVs),especiallygivenfluctuatingrawmaterialpricesandevolvingbatterytechnologies? ThisstudyaddressesthatquestionbyanalyzingthedevelopmentoftheU.S.batterysupplychainanditsimpactonBEVcostsfrom2023–2032.ItexploresthefeasibilityoftheUnitedStatessecuringareliablelithiumsupplychainwiththemineralseligiblefortaxcreditsandgenerateshypotheticalpricesscenariosofthreekeybatterymaterials(lithium,cobalt,andnickel)from2023–2032.Itthendevelopsabottom-upbatterycostanalysistoidentifytheimpactofchangingrawmaterialpricesonbatterypack-levelcostsandappliesthosebatterycostestimatestoassesstheimpactonnewBEVpricesthrough2032. FigureES1illustratesakeyfindingofthiswork—thatnewlithiumsupplymayfarexceedlithiumdemandfromnewU.S.light-dutyBEVsthrough2032.ThethreepotentialscopesofnewlithiumsupplyarebasedadetailedassessmentofnewprojectswithintheUnitedStatesandincountrieswithwhichtheUnitedStateshasexistingorpotentialfutureFreeTradeAgreements(FTA)orCriticalMineralAgreements(CMA).LithiumdemandfromnewU.S.BEVsisbasedonascenarioalignedwithEPA’sproposed2027–2032multipollutantstandards,suchthattheBEVshareofnewsalesincreasesfromabout7%in2023to67%in2032.Alsoshownareestimatesofadditionallithiumdemandfromheavy-dutyvehicles,gridbatterystorage,andconsumerelectronics. Supplyscope3 Supplyscope2 Supplyscope1 U.S.demandtotal U.S.demandLDV 2,500 Metrictonsoflithiumcarbonateequivalent(thousands) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2023202420252026202720282029203020312032 Scope1includeslithiumsupplyfromtheUnitedStatesanditsexistingFTAandCMApartnersinbatteryminerals,andexcludesfacilitiesownedbyaForeignEntityofConcernandallprospectiveprojects.Scope2includessupplyfromcurrentFTAandCMApartnersandallprospectiveprojects.Scope3furtherincludescountriesthatarepotentialFTAandCMApartnersaswellasallprospectiveprojects,withoutexclusionsbasedonownership. FigureES1.ThreescopesofannouncedlithiumsupplyfromUnitedStatesanditsexistingandpotentialFTAandCMApartnerscomparedtolithiumdemandfromnewU.S.light-dutyBEVsalesthrough2032. FigureES1showsthatby2032,theUnitedStatesisprojectedtoneedaround540thousandmetrictonsperannum(ktpa)oflithiumcarbonateequivalent(LCE).Thisdemandwouldbeabout26%to46%oftheamountofannouncedsupply,whichisestimatedtorangefromabout1,190ktpa(Scope1,whichincludesplantsthatarealreadyinoperationorunderconstructionintheUnitedStatesanditsexistingFTAandCMApartner)toabout2,000ktpa(Scope3,whichincludesadditionalprospectiveprojectsandpotentialFTApartnerships).WhenconsideringadditionallithiumdemandfromexistingFTAandCMApartners,wefindthatannouncedsupplywouldstillequalorexceeddemandforeachsupplyscope. Ouranalysisleadstofourhigh-levelconclusions: Morethan100lithiumminingandrefiningprojectsareunderwayintheUnitedStatesanditsexistingandpotentialfutureFTAandCMApartnersasof2023.Together,thesefacilitiesareprojectedtoamounttoalithiumextractioncapacityof1,310ktpaLCEandarefiningcapacityof1,030ktpaLCEin2025.By2032,extractioncapacityisprojectedtoincreaseto2,170ktpa,andtherefiningcapacityto2,040ktpa.By2032,theUnitedStateswouldaccountforapproximately17%ofthisminingcapacityand27%ofthisrefiningcapacity.CountrieswithexistingFTAsandCMAslike Australia,Canada,Chile,andPeruwouldaccountfor56%inminingand47%inrefiningcapacity.PotentialcountriesforfutureCMAssuchasArgentinawouldaccountfor28%ofminingand21%ofrefiningcapacitiesconsideredinthisanalysis. TheUnitedStateshaspotentialtosecurealithiumsupplythatfarexceedsthelithiumdemandfromnewlight-dutyBEVsales.ThisanalysisprojectsU.S.lithiumdemandforlight-dutyBEVsproductiontobeapproximately340ktpaLCEin2032,whichisbasedona67%newsalessharein2032andanaverageBEVrangeof 300-miles.Thisvaluerepresentsabout17%–33%oftheannouncedsupplyintheUnitedStatesanditsexistingFTAandCMApartnersby2032.Whenaccountingforadditional U.S.lithiumdemandbeyondlight-dutyvehicles,weestimatethatdemandcouldincreasefrom340ktpaLCEto540ktpaLCEin2032,whichislessthan50%ofth