2024年中期世界经济形势与展望

WorldEconomicSituationandProspects2024 MID-YEARUPDATE WorldEconomicSituationandProspects2024 MID-YEARUPDATE TheWoíldEconomicSituationandPíospectsasofmid-2024updatestheWoíldEconomicSituationandPíospects2024íeleasedon4Januaíy2024.Theíepoítispíepaíed bytheGlobalEconomicMonitoíingBíanchinthe EconomicAnalysisandPolicyDivisionoftheUnitedNationsDepaítmentofEconomicandSocialAffaiís. WorldEconomicSituationandProspectsasofmid-2024 Summaíy TheglobaleconomicoutlookhasimpíovedsinceJanuaíy,withmajoíeconomiesavoidingaseveíedowntuín.Thewoíldeconomyisnowpíojectedtogíowby2.7peícentin2024,insteadof2.4peícentfoíecastedeaílieí,onthebackofbetteí-than-expectedpeífoímanceoftheUnitedStateseconomyandsomeimpíovementintheoutlookfoíseveíallaígeemeígingeconomies.ThemodestgaininthegíowthmomentumispaítlyoffsetbythedownwaídíevisionsofthegíowthoutlookfoítheEuíopeanUnion,Afíica,andWesteínAsia.Onbalance,theneaí-teímeconomicoutlookisonlycautiouslyoptimisticaseconomicvulneíabilitiesíemain,amidpeísistentlyhighinteíestíates,continuinggeopoliticaltensions,andincíeasingclimateíisks. Thewoíldeconomyisalsogíapplingwithchallengestoacceleíatethetíansitiontonetzeíoemissions.Technologicalbíeakthíoughs–especiallyiníenewablesandbatteíies,íequiíing extíaction,píocessinganduseofcíiticalmineíals –hasopenedupnewoppoítunitiesfoíboostingeconomicgíowthandachievingtheSustainableDevelopmentGoals,especiallyinmineíal-íichdevelopingeconomies.Takingadvantageofsuchoppoítunitiesandavoidingaíenewed“íesouícecuíse”willíequiíesoundnationalpoliciesandeffectiveimplementationcapacities.Thesecountíiescannotdoitalone.Anenablinginteínationalenviíonmentandstíongeíinteínationalcoopeíationwillbeessential tohaínessthepotentialofcíiticalmineíalíesouícesandacceleíatepíogíesstowaídssustainabledevelopment. Contents SummaryII Globalmacroeconomictrends1 Globaloverview1 Inflation4 Labourmarkets5 Internationalinvestment6 Internationaltrade6 Monetaryandfiscalpolicies8 Harnessingthepotentialofcriticalminerals11 Criticalmineralsareindispensableforenergy transition11 Investmentincriticalmineralsfacesmajorchallenges.13 Surgingdemandofferssignificantopportunities fordevelopingcountries17 Coherentglobalandnationalactionisessential18 Regionaleconomicoutlook20 Developedeconomies20 UnitedStatesofAmerica20 Europe21 DevelopedAsiaandthePacific21 Economiesintransition22 Developingeconomies22 Africa22 EastAsia23 SouthAsia24 WesternAsia24 LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean25 Table 1.Growthofgrossdomesticproduct2 Figures 1.Growthofeconomicoutput1 2.ManufacturingPurchasingManagers’Indexandprivateconsumption3 3.Growthofgrossdomesticproductpercapita4 4.Youthunemploymentrates(ages15-24)in selectedEuropeancountries5 5.Annualinvestmentgrowth6 6.Annualinvestmentgrowthinselecteddevelopedeconomies,byassettype7 7.Merchandiseexports7 8.DrewryworldcontainerindexandnumberofcargoshipscrossingsthroughtheSuezCanal,by week7 9.Netinterestpaymentsonpublicdebt9 10.Criticalmineralsusedinselectedcleanenergytechnologies12 11.Growthofdemandofselectedcriticalminerals by205013 12.Globalsupplyanddemandforselectedcriticalminerals13 13.Shareoftopthreeproducingcountriesinproductionofselectedmineralsandfossilfuels, 2019......................................14 14.Priceandpricevolatilityofselectedminerals15 15.Criticalminerals-relatedpolicies16 16.RealGDPofselecteddevelopedeconomies20 17.RealGDPbydevelopingregion24 III Globalmacroeconomictrends Globaloveíview TheglobaleconomicoutlookhasimpíovedsincethepíeviousfoíecastíeleasedinJanuaíy2024. Despitethemostaggíessivemonetaíytighteningindecades,ascenaíioofhaídlandingoftheUnitedStateseconomyhaslaígelyíeceded.Mostmajoíeconomieshavemanagedtobíingdowninflationwithoutincíeasingunemploymentandtíiggeíingaíecession.Howeveí,theoutlookisonlycautiouslyoptimisticashigheí-foí-longeíinteíestíates,debtdifficulties,andescalatinggeopoliticalíiskswillcontinuetochallengestableandsustainedeconomicgíowth.Eveí-woíseningclimateshockscontinuetoposeadditionalchallengestotheglobaleconomicoutlook,thíeateningdecadesofdevelopmentgains,especiallyfoíleastdevelopedcountíiesandsmallislandsdevelopingStates.Thebíeakneckpace oftechnologicalchange–includinginmachineleaíningandaítificialintelligence–píesentsnewoppoítunitiesandíiskstotheglobaleconomy,píomisingtoboostpíoductivityandadvanceknowledgeontheonehand,whileexaceíbatingtechnologicaldividesandíeshapinglabouímaíketsontheotheí. Thewoíldeconomyisnowfoíecasttogíowby 2.7peícentin2024(anincíeaseof0.3peícentagepointsfíomthefoíecastinJanuaíy)and2.8 peícentin2025(anincíeaseof0.1peícentagepoints)(figuíe1).TheupwaídíevisionsmainlyíeflectimpíovedpíospectsintheUnitedStatesofAmeíicaandseveíallaígedeveloping Figure1 Growthofeconomicoutput Percentage Developingeconomies Woíld Developedeconomies 86 4 2 0 -2 -4 WESPasofmid-2024 WESP2024-6 201520162017201820192020202120222023e2024f2025f Source:UNDESA,basedonestimatesandforecastsproducedwiththeWorldEconomicForecastingModel. Note:e=estimates;f=forecasts. economies,notablyIndiaandBíazil.Howeveí,theeconomicoutlookfoímanyAfíicancountíieshasdeteíioíatedsin